In early 2018, we predicted what the global year of health and development might look like in the countries we cover.
The experts we interviewed predicted that 2018 people would lead to a decline in the number of health workers around the world, encouraging more humanists to share their "me too" stories, and see more conflicts that will drive the world humanitarian crisis.
Our prediction is not too bad.
The Lancet's latest Global Burden of Disease study notes: "The global shortage and uneven distribution of health workers requires urgent attention.
"In October, international charities gathered in London to try to address sexual harassment in the aid sector.
A 2018 report from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs found that "conflict remains the main driver of humanitarian needs.
"So, what should we expect in 2019?
We have engaged with experts in the field of global health and development who have come up with nine bold predictions. 1.
Positive social change will spread in Africa.
NPR's Eyder Peralta reports that in the past year, Ethiopia has undergone a historic transformation at an extremely fast pace.
The country welcomes the new reformist prime minister, who has set up peace with the former enemy of Ecuador and released thousands of political prisoners.
Tobias Denskus, professor of international development communications at Malmo University and founder of Global Health and Development Blog Aidnography, believes this may inspire other African countries.
"Ecuador is one of the most isolated, authoritarian and authoritarian countries," he said . "
"I hope that the positive social change in neighbouring countries like Ethiopia will lead to the same in Eritrea. " -Malaka Gharib2.
Urban slums will increase.
Most of Africa's population is young. and that so-
The so-called youth inflation will mean "more and more people will shift from rural to urban centers, look for jobs and opportunities, and be driven by climate change," Kennedy Audi said"
Founder and CEO of SHOFCO, a non-profit organization that provides services such as education, grassroots organizations and health care and water in Kenya's slums.
Changing urban landscapes will be a challenge for the government.
They "have to respond to rapid change, otherwise they will be at risk of a humanitarian crisis and instability," said Audo . ".
If the government is not able to provide better service to these new urban populations, Audi says there may be a "city spring "--
Protests and chaos by angry, uneducated, marginalized young people.
But he is an optimist: "There is an opportunity to use the energy and wisdom of young people in this regard. " -Marc Silver3.
More countries will follow the example of the United States. S.
Example of withdrawal from the United StatesN. funding.
January 1, United StatesS.
Officially left Unesco, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.
At the end of World War II, the United States helped UNESCO protect world heritage sites and promoted the flow of ideas to prevent future conflicts.
However, UNESCO later granted full membership to Palestinians,S.
Stop Funding, NPR reports.
This is not the first time the United States has done so. S. has left the U. N.
Bureau of heritage
According to foreign policy, it withdrew once in 1984 on the grounds of corruption and ideological tilt towards the Soviet Union to the West.
Tobias Denskus of Malmo University predicts that the United StatesS.
Will cut further: "I am worried that as we get closer to the United States,S. elections, U. N.
The funds will suffer greater losses and eventually weaken [the U. N. ].
"He is worried about the US government. S.
Precedent will lead other countries to reduce their contributions in line with their political agenda. -Malaka Gharib4.
There will be more major outbreaks of infectious diseases.
Maybe even popular. . .
"We see an increase in the spread of infectious diseases around the world," said Jennifer nuzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Health and Safety Center, who led the epidemic watch, the organization that collects information about the epidemic.
She does not want the pattern to change.
"In fact," she said, "there are worrying signs of conditions conducive to the emergence of a pandemic --
The impact it will have
More and more now, it may get worse and worse.
"These situations include the increasing number of migrants who face unprecedented diseases, densely populated megacities and resettlement camps, the rejection of vaccines, and the infrastructure that has been compromised by humanitarian crises such as conflicts, natural disasters and instability, and climate change that fuels disasters and diseases --
Bring wildlife into a new habitat-Joanne Lu5. . . .
But the possibility that we can fight off a serious epidemic is very high.
Nuzzo said the ability to respond quickly to the pandemic is also increasing.
For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has controlled the first phase of the Ebola outbreak in a few months, and now there is an Ebola vaccine that did not exist when the Ebola virus swept through West Africa four years ago.
Nevertheless, the second phase of the epidemic-now the second and second largest Death in history-suggests that political instability may hinder such progress.
"The reason for optimism is that the emergence and spread of diseases may be inevitable, but their impact on society does not exist," she said . ".
"We should believe there will be a very serious outbreak.
Whether or not they become epidemic depends on us. " -Joanne Lu 6.
People who need mental health help will find it on their mobile phones.
Psychiatrist ram Patel, a professor of global health and social medicine at Harvard University, predicts that the field of mental health and drug abuse treatment is about to take a big step towards the digital world.
The solution to fight shame and the lack of a trained consultant may be in your pocket-a smartphone, or even a regular old flip phone.
Consultants with network connections can learn about effective diagnosis and treatment online.
They can send messages to patients online.
In rich and poor countries, people with depression, mental division, or substance abuse can use their mobile phones to consult a consultant, receive guidance, or engage with others who face the same problem.
Researchers around the world are also testing a variety of applications.
Washington University is working on a variety of mobile phones --
Training and treatment programs in Ghana, mobile phones are common, and 3g networks are extensive.
The FDA is working on ways to approve digital programs for cognitive behavioral therapy.
And the National Institute of Mental Health. S.
This also predicts greater use of digital technology in the future and has provided a guide for finding effective mental health applications. -
Joanne silberner7
The leadership of non-profit organizations will be more diverse.
In 2018, bullying, sexual harassment and sex scandals in the humanitarian industry made headlines, from large aid agencies like UNAIDS to smaller non-profit organizations more than me.
One solution to this problem, critics say, is to hire more diverse and qualified candidates.
"Many organizations are aware that they should diversify to represent the traditionally marginalized view," said Tobias Denskus of the University of Malmo . ".
"The increasing pressure is to hire more female leaders and hire competent managers from the Global South, the LGBT community that has never been included.
"More qualified and diverse candidates from Africa and other regions are knocking on the door," added Denskus . "
They are now brought in by aid organizations. -Malaka Gharib8.
The food crisis will be reduced.
The dry season begins in season. Sub-Saharan Africa-
Some time from November to April may also be when the rainfall stops.
Drought is becoming more and more serious as climate change affects weather patterns.
Esther Ngumbi said by February, "you will see the face of hungry people from Ethiopia to Kenya to South Sudan," a researcher at the University of Illinois and a food safety researcher at the Aspen Institute.
But in 2019, she hoped the effects of the dry season would not be so noticeable.
The reason, she said, is that countries are doing better in equipping farmers with water storage systems and encouraging them to plant drought --
Resistant crops like millet and sorghum, both nutritious grains and peas (aka black-eyed peas)
Its seeds are rich in protein.
Famine and food insecurity will remain part of the 2019 situation, especially in conflict --torn areas.
But Ngumbi predicts that hunger emergencies will decrease: "It's January and we haven't seen a new call for emergency relief yet. " -Marc Silver9.
Rich countries will reject more asylum seekers.
Paul Spiegel, director of the Center for Humanitarian Health at Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins, is concerned that "asylum seekers will be denied more
Income country.
"Due to more and more-
Immigration and
Refugee sentiment, some countries in Europe have begun to "pay off --
He said that the income countries should bear the burden of receiving refugees.
In 2016, for example, Germany reached an agreement with Turkey to calm the flow of refugees from Syria.
In exchange for $6.
8 billion. in dealing with refugee asylum applications in Germany, Turkey has established facilities for the detention of refugees in refugee camps.
In 2017, Italy followed suit by a similar agreement with Libya.
Spiegel is worried that projects like this will increase in the United States in 2019. S. and beyond. "In the U. S.
We're in trouble at the Mexican border.
What happens when the Venezuelan start to come here? " he says. For U. S.
He predicts that government officials will remain in power, and they will take a stronger stance on immigration policy --
The idea is that the United StatesS.
Must be "strong on the border ". " -
Malaka gharibget made a bold prediction of global health and development in 2019?
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