the uphill road: battery limitations to test china's electric vehicle ambitions - lithium ion battery cost

BEIJING/Detroit (Reuters)-
It took 330 kilometers to travel from Chongqing to Chengdu, in his 7-seater all-
Electric SUV, for its owner Wang Haichun is consumed by the buyer's remorse.
Although known as winning the league 335 km full charge at a time, ES8 did not get the nearby highway when driving, the speed of more than 100 km kilometers per hour (60mph)
After 180 km, he said, the remaining distance is only 50 km.
"We had to charge the car once and drive with a high degree of anxiety and keep an eye on the distance meter," 44-year-
The old manager of a real estate company said.
At the end of the trip, he turned off the air conditioning and sound system in order to keep the power supply.
"I don't want to travel like that anymore.
Wang, who paid 481,000 yuan, was very unhappy. $71,700)
He sold the car.
Since then, he and his wife have bought a Lexus NX300h gaselectric SUV.
Asked to comment on Wang's experience, the company said in an email
Mailing statement when the ES8 continues at a speed of 200 km kilometers per hour, it can travel more than 100 km kilometers and the battery exchange station can charge quickly.
The statement did not involve an advertisement for the full charge of 335 km at a time.
In the real world, all
Automotive engineers say electric cars are sometimes far below the scope of advertising.
This is especially true when traveling on a highway or in a hilly area, in hot or cold weather.
This problem adds to the shortcomings that hinder wider acceptance --
In any case, electric vehicles have shorter and more expensive mileage than petrol vehicles, and it takes a long time to charge.
China, Europe and the United StatesS.
California has put ambitious demands on automakers to demand them in the next 5-
10 years, but unless electric vehicles are close to gasoline engine cars in terms of cost and ease of use, these targets are at risk.
China is the largest car market in the world and the most active country to adopt electric vehicles. Some industry insiders believe that by 2025, pure battery electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline cars.
Those who made this forecast included Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of the EV100 Forum, widely regarded as the actual voice of government policy.
"The turning point is coming.
We believe the price of pure electric vehicles will make a major breakthrough at around 2025, "he said in a speech on January.
Ouyang noted that the cost of the battery dropped from $100 per kilowatt hour to $150 per kilowatt hour
For now, China plans to tighten emissions rules of $200, which will make gasoline cars there more expensive.
But others in the electric car industry are less optimistic.
"Chinese policy makers believe that electric vehicles will become more like conventional gasoline vehicles as early as 2025.
But it's naive, and all of the automakers will agree with me, "said a senior electric vehicle engineer at Honda Motor.
"Of course, there is a boom in electric cars, but hybrid and plug
"Hybrid vehicles will be necessary as bridging technology," he said . ".
The engineer, one of five engineers interviewed by Reuters on the article, believes that battery electric vehicles will take ten years to achieve cost and performance parity with petrol vehicles.
Most people have no right to talk to the media and refuse to disclose when describing the shortcomings of electric vehicle technology.
However, only when China cancels subsidies while setting sales quotas for new energy vehicles, the pressure to achieve parity will increase (NEVs).
China wants new energy vehicles
This also includes a hybrid, plug-in
Hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
By 2025, it accounted for the fifth largest car sales, but now it is 5%.
Engineers say the cost of the battery is about $200/kWh for most automakers, although Tesla's cost is believed to be about $150/kWh, part of the reason is that its production is much larger.
Tesla declined to comment.
To reduce costs, the company is working to cut the most expensive part of lithium-the use of cobaltion batteries.
China Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. , Ltd (CATL)
BYD and South Korea SK Innovation Co. , Ltd. are developing NMC 811 technology.
It uses 80% nickel, 10% manganese, 10% cobalt, while the traditional lithium-
The ion battery uses 60% nickel, 20% manganese and 20% cobalt.
The NMC 811 also provides a higher energy density, which means that the battery costs less and weighs less.
Other companies are also developing similar technologies, but the proportion is slightly different.
Batteries produced jointly by Tesla and Panasonic replace manganese with aluminum, using less cobalt than the NMC 811.
Less cobalt and more nickel increase the risk of battery fire
A problem still being solved
Still, South Korean battery manufacturers say the next generation of batteries that will be launched in the next three years or so will be significantly reduced in cost and provide greater mileage.
But engineers interviewed by Reuters warned that even if the cost per unit of battery fell to $100/kWh, it would not necessarily lead to a sharp drop in vehicle costs.
This is because the investment in improving battery quality needs to be taken into account, and the car also needs complex battery management systems to prevent overheating and overcharging --
Their costs have increased by thousands of dollars.
Toyota, which does not currently have a pure electric vehicle on the market, said it is concerned about the durability of the battery.
Battery capacity can be reduced by more than half 5-10 years -
Shigeki Terashi, executive vice president in charge of Toyota electric vehicle strategy, said that the reason why electric vehicles have low resale value.
In an interview with Reuters, he said: "The decline in battery capacity of electric vehicles is not a major problem in China now, because sales there have not started until recently, but over time, the problem may be
A long-term effort to improve the battery is a solid-state battery in which liquid or gel-
Forming electrolyte in lithium
Replace the ion battery with solid.
This will double the energy density of the battery.
"This is the Holy Grail," said Jon Bereisa, former GM engineering director, a pioneer in the car maker's early lithium --
Ion battery development
Many industry insiders believe the technology is at least a decade away from mass production.
Commercial use of the market.
"There are a lot of restrictions on solid state drives. .
YS Yoon, president of SK Innovation battery business, said: "It will be very difficult to adopt this technology in automotive applications used by the public . ".
The progress of charging technology is also the key to the mainstream of electric vehicles.
Heat is a big barrier, which increases the resistance and, in turn, reduces the current.
Most electric vehicles can get partial charging in less than half an hour, although several models due next year can be nearly fully charged in 20 minutes.
TE Connectivity is working with automakers to shorten the charging time to 5 minutes, and chief technology officer Alan armic said the goal could be achieved within five years.
But others are skeptical.
Bereisa believes that by the end of 2020, the cost of the battery may be the same as the gasoline car, but his judgment on the parity of fast refueling is "maybe never ".
"It's physics," he said, adding that charging an electric car for the same amount of time as a petrol vehicle, you need a powerful charger "enough to run a small city ".