Fred Pearce's recent slump in oil prices is good or bad for the environment?
Environmental activists have been looking for carbon taxes and other measures to raise oil prices for years to encourage us to move towards cleanlinessenergy path.
But some now think the recent slump in oil prices is just as good for the environment as it could fatally weaken big oil and its control over the world's energy system.
Your confusion is forgiven. What gives?
Oil prices have fallen by more than half since last June, slightly below the dollar;
Brent crude, the industry's global benchmark, is priced at $50 a barrel.
This may increase the amount of oil burned as fuel, both because people are not too careful about cheap things and because low fuel prices can stimulate economic activity.
The price slump will also curb investment in alternative sources such as renewable energy.
As major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries are reluctant to reduce oil production, there is no sign of relief from the excess oil supply. “High-
The decline in oil prices has suppressed oil demand and made oil alternatives more feasible [whereas]
Falling oil prices have restarted oil demand, leading to an increase in overall production and consumption, "said Deborah Gordon, energy and climate analyst in Washington, D. C.
A think tank based at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
In the past decade of high oil prices, people in the United States are driving fewer cars and the economy is growing.
Now, the argument begins, gas-
Guzler will be back.
But there are also those who argue that the price slump could bring green gains.
This is because low oil prices are bad news for big oil companies and it needs to find out new sources of black oil.
In particular, low prices make a huge investment in new oil reserves look like a bad deal-especially since the mining costs of almost all new reserves are high, both in the Arctic and away from the Arctic
Ashore or bundled in Canadian tar sands.
We ran out of cheap stuff.
Almost all new oil reserves are high today.
Cost, both deep in the Arctic
Coast or-in British Tar Sands Carbon Tracker-
Think tanks based on finance, energy and climate are praising the environmental benefits of low prices.
James Leaton, the company's research director, said big oil companies had committed to investing in dollars; 1.
Over the next ten years, there are 1 trillion projects to rest on.
At least & the price of USD; 95 a barrel.
These investments are in trouble if low prices persist-this is possible.
While things were different in the 1980 s, when oil prices fell sharply, it took them more than a decade to recover completely.
Even shale reserves could be at risk.
Huge Bakken Shale
North Dakota has a breakthrough in oil reserves.
Even almost the price of the dollar; 80 a barrel.
The industry as a whole may be weakened and supply may be reduced.
Observers say oil prices continue to fall below the dollar;
$50 a barrel means that the investment spending of companies involved in oil exploration and production will be greatly impacted.
This is already evidence and a colon;
Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell and Total have announced plans to cut jobs.
Employment and investment are decreasing.
Related industries engaged in pipeline manufacturing or serving the oil industry are also shrinking.
Of course, in the case of the same other conditions, such a result may eventually rebalance the balance of supply and demand and drive a rebound in prices.
But other things may not be equal anymore.
Some analysts say the oil industry may be approaching a tipping point, which means that there is less chance of a strong rebound than in the past.
What happened in the coal industry provided clues.
Prosperity is turning to collapse as a decade
The long-term surge in demand is mainly due to the cooling of Chinese demand.
China recently imposed strict restrictions on coal burning in the coming 2020 s.
This is already driving down global coal prices, leading mining companies to seal up expensive new projects.
The industry has a term to describe mines & colon that cost billions of dollars to develop but are actually worthless;
"Stranded assets ".
New research suggests that if the world takes seriously its efforts to curb the potential for dangerous climate change, the current oil reserves could eventually become stranded assets (
Nature, volume 517, page 187).
The study authors, Luce McGlade, and Paul Ekins of University College London, calculate how much fossil carbon needs to be kept underground to avoid dangerous climate change.
In the absence of commercially viable carbon capture and storage (CCS)
They say all oil burning must stop within 25 years.
McGlade and Ekins are also pessimistic about the industry's desire for CCS solutions to enable it to continue burning fossil fuels, which they say may look too small and too late.
If the United Nations agrees to a strict global climate deal to limit carbon emissions, events later this year could amplify the price signal and its impact on new reserves.
In order to limit the global temperature rise to 2 °c, putting a considerable proportion of coal and oil reserves "Unburnable" could lead to the eventual decline in both industries as the market shrinks and prices plummet, the search and development of expensive assets are left underground.
Coupled with the views of Cristina Figueres, the UN's chief climate negotiator, that is, oil price fluctuations will drive the world to energy sources with less economic fluctuations-such as solar energy-and you begin to understand why some observers describe 2015 as the perfect storm for oil.
So which is the best for the environment?
Is it to push prices to curb demand, or is it to lower prices to curb supply?
It is not clear yet.
But oil and coal may be doomed to a double dilemma in which both high prices and low prices pose more problems than opportunities.
Maybe we see the pain of our addiction to fossil fuels.
It will be a very good news for those who care about the climate.