one expert's view on the near-term future of energy storage - battery energy storage system

I spent a lot of time at the Energy Storage conference trying to figure out where the various technologies and business models are going.
I thought I understood most of the nuances.
Until April, I met Sam Jeff at the Energy Storage Association meeting in Charlotte.
After a brief discussion, I realized that I had more understanding to do and was able to arrange the follow-upTalk.
When Jaffe was active at Navigant Research as their main energy storage analyst, I first met him and he later became general manager of Kane energy Research consultancy (Cairn ERA).
Jaffe has worked in energy storage for more than 10 years as an analyst, consultant, entrepreneur and executive from both ends of the business.
So before the space becomes relevant, he actually looks at it all the time.
Swiss army knife for the grid: storage is a complex area because batteries are Swiss Army knives for the energy world: they have multiple applications and you often need to "stack" multiple value propositions in order to make economics work.
You may not need a fork and toothpick in order to be attractive in the market, but at least you 'd better have scissors, blades and (above all)the corkscrew.
In addition, there are many technologies, some of which are very different --
Such as mobile and lithium-ion batteries.
Other technologies are characterized by small differences, for example, different types of lithium-ion batteries (
For example, lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and fixed storage have different chemical components).
The Kane era focuses on the different storage methods that may be adopted today and in the future.
The company has followed more than 25 different applications, each developing a separate business model.
In Jaffe's words, the challenge is that in this sense, storage is very different from the alternative energy sources (such as wind and solar) that the market is more used to deal.
To simplify greatly, in each case, you can build the resource, connect it to the grid, and when it passively takes energy from an invisible airflow or a solar photon stream, walk away.
In contrast, the battery is a lot more complicated, first of all you can absorb or release energy in a different number of specific time ranges.
Jaffe observed that many things can be done by battery and use
Different utilities, different regions, and different countries have different situations. "There is nothing simple about this industry.
"Is storage already prime time?
Storage is also an industry that, while full of obvious possibilities, is still on the verge of reaching its full potential, especially the chemical batteries that can be used to strengthen and increase the value of the grid.
Jaffe observed that the industry was close, but not yet.
For example, in first quarter of 2016, more than 18 MW and 21 MW-
Storage was deployed for hours.
In other words, a new combined circulating gas-
400-power plant that may have been fired600 MW range. )
He pointed out that the good news is that the emergence of mass production of lithium ion has helped solve previous environmental problems related to lead-acid batteries, for lithium-ion batteries, the cost has dropped to the point where it is enough to satisfy some initial grid applications (
In particular, rapid response capabilities such as frequency regulation help stabilize power grids in markets such as the medium term
Atlantic Electric poolPJM).
But Jaffe commented that while the industry is nearing its end, battery storage is still not ready for widespread use of the grid.
Tesla and other companies are talking about electric cars at a good price, he notes, but electric industrial fixed storage applications are completely another game.
The reason is that in the car, the battery is only charged and discharged several times a week.
Over 93% of the time, the average vehicle is idle.
Therefore, a battery that only runs about 3,000 cycles is affordable.
In contrast, grid applications are much more laborious, and today's batteries are not quite normal when faced with durability issues in heavy duty cycle applications.
Durability is indeed a key issue, Jaffe stressed.
While the battery is much better than it was a decade ago and has reached the point of making electric vehicles viable, we haven't fully done that in terms of capacity or cost, he said.
Jaffe said Tesla's pricing is currently between $350 and $450 per kilowatt.
An hour, very close to where it needs to go.
However, once you increase the cost of fully warranty the equipment for 10 years, profitability will be out of range-at least for the time being.
Costs continue to decline, technology advances, but there is no Black Swan at hand: The good news is that analysts, including Jaffe, predict that prices for future storage installations will continue to decline.
Just like solar, it is not the cost of equipment that is now having a significant impact.
Instead, this is the balance of system costs: everything that comes with the battery, including the inverter connected to the grid and the control of managing the battery, as well as the cost of installation, warranty, and even the financing itself.
Like the solar and wind industries, he believes, the power industry will come up with ways to quickly expand and reduce storage costs.
Small and consistent steps can bring impressive benefits over time.
What about all the reports of graphene lab breakthroughs, or new chemical adjustments that people often read about?
For example, in the last week of May, a report shows that researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory of the Department of Energy have made significant progress, which may lead to lithium-ion batteries with a much higher density.
In the visible future, is there a black swan that will surprise us and dramatically reshape the industry?
Jaffe did not see anything, noting that it could take up to ten years from laboratory discovery to commercialisation.
However, he believes that the world may change over time, "Ten years later, we will see new chemicals begin to commercialize. “While it is -and will be -
A world dominated by lithium, other technologies have room in the long run:
It is said that lithium ion will be the inevitable winner in the storage war.
How about mobile batteries and other competitive technologies?
Can anyone of them grow into giants?
Jaffe does not think so, largely because lithium ion has economies of scale, which, at least in the near future, are difficult to achieve.
Financing will not be a problem in the end: Jaffe also believes that while it takes time, it is largely because there are a lot of different potentials (
And often variable and unpredictable)
Value stream of harvest
The financial community is increasingly satisfied with storage.
He pointed out that the problem is not whether financing can be obtained.
If the technology works, the funds will be in place.
The real problem is how expensive the money is.
The warranty could be a bigger challenge, Jaffe claims.
It is important to stabilize renewable energy, but optimizing natural gas generation can be a big sum of money: storage plays a role in some relatively restricted areas in today's market.
These early beaches include frequency regulation (
Release or absorb power to stabilize the response speed of the grid extremely fast)
In PJM, strengthen solar output in places such as Germany, Australia and Hawaii, support wind power generation in Texas, and in (still)
Limited number of applications (
The total power of global deployment is less than GW).
However, storage will rapidly expand to other areas as costs fall.
But Jia Fei believes that energy storage will become an area of killer applications in the next decade, that is, as a power grid --
Scale dance partner for optimized gas
The fired generation
Jaffe's company has simulated this interaction and checked a 1,200 MW natural gas plant with a 1,600 MWh battery with very positive results.
For more valuable on-demand energy, the model assumes a premium of 15%, but the real value comes from gas plants always operating at peak efficiency.
Jaffe travel and use with Prius 18-
Wheeler on the same trip: it's so much more efficient that it can save a lot of fuel.
This approach not only saves money, but also helps to address important macro-policy issues such as the integration of renewable energy and the implementation of clean energy plans.
At the same time, Jaffe notes that this approach is "relatively mild to the battery itself" because you are not fully discharged every day, but is adjusted for use based on the interaction between variable demand and natural gas supply
The fired generation
The battery is not fully discharged every day, but is strategically deployed at different times as needed.
"One day is 20%," he said. "The other day is 50%. you may not do anything on the other day.
So you can get a longer battery life.
Electric vehicles and fixed batteries are not the same: Jaffe said that although there is a cross effort to deploy used electric vehicle batteries for fixed storage in the power market, the storage technology of electric vehicles and power grids is different, and it often involves different chemicals.
This is because they are trying to solve different problems.
Even in Tesla's giga-
The factory is making two different chemicals.
"For example," he notes, "the cathode chemical composition of Panasonic's Tesla car battery is completely different from that sold by Tesla energy products.
NCA battery for electric vehicles (
Nickel, cobalt, aluminum)
Because it has better density and the vehicle needs to be light in as many ranges as possible.
At the same time, electric vehicles do not need to go through a lot of cycles (
On average, it only used 7% of the time).
However, the chemistry of the state copyright administration will not last, as long as it is in nickel manganese cobalt (NMC)
Fix the chemicals used in the battery.
Jaffe pointed out that LG Chem, the world's largest manufacturer, has a similar disagreement.
Even if the chemical properties are similar, different manufacturers will carry out different packaging of lithium-ion batteries.
Jaffe observed a battery he didn't like.
If cell C or double a is the same size anywhere, so it can be swapped-
The industry is not standardized.
Panasonic's battery is a small 18650 cylinder (
It means its diameter is 18mm and its height is 65mm, a little thicker and a little higher than the standard double).
At the same time, LG uses bag cells (
It is rectangular and looks like a very thin flat brick, but it lacks an external housing-one has to purchase the battery pack housing separately).
Samsung's prism battery looks very similar but is enclosed in a hard metal case.
Lithium supply and costs: Recently, there has been some speculation that lithium prices will rise sharply as demand for electric vehicles and utilities may suddenly soarscale storage.
The reality is that, while many believe the supply is concentrated on the Sharar River in the Atacama Desert in South America, there are many sources of lithium in the world, including a large amount of hard rock lithium in Australia.
As for the recent breath-taking hype about the rise in lithium prices, Jaffe warned that for some reason it might not have met expectations.
First, most of the lithium sold is traded over a long period of time.
Long-term forward contracts with no open price.
Lithium carbonate also has a spot market, but Xie Fei warned that China also has a spot market and volatility has raised recent concerns.
Jaffe has communicated with individuals reporting 400% growth in the Chinese market.
However, this has little to do with the rise of Tesla and electric vehicles, or at all, and more to do with the Chinese government's clean air by pushing the Chinese electric bus market.
So where will the store go in the years to come?
Looking ahead, Jaffe predicts that chemical energy storage will play a variety of roles and will become more and more important as costs continue to decline steadily.
At the same time, in a complex market, energy storage involves complex technologies.
We will see a surge in usage.
It will take several years for some cases and applications.
While storage will add great value and allow us to add a lot of renewable energy, it may not be the Holy Grail.
Jaffe warned that it is unlikely that a battery alone will allow us to completely abandon fossil fuels.
That is to say, storage is a very big and important ratchet (or -
Mix the metaphor together
Swiss Army knife)
In this toolbox, it will be used in a variety of interesting and useful applications.
Storage is still a bit novel today, and in the visible future storage will be a common and core part of the future grid.