Media hyped a chance to see the northern lights last Saturday night. It was a bad forecast badly communicated. - all in one solar street light

For sky watchers in Northern Virginia and Illinois, far south of the United States, the game last Saturday night was memorable.
Except . . . . . . No.
For several days, local and national media have been predicting the Northern Lights, the more common ones, that are expected to emerge.
A plasma explosion from the sunspots AR2736 appears to be directed at the Earth, a bruising from the sun that beats a magnetic pulse. The high-
The space weather forecast center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration saw energy particles, which hung a watch last Wednesday outlining the possibility of a moderate intensity Earth storm on Earth.
The explosion, known as the mass jet of the corona, sent protons and electrons into space in the direction of the Earth.
When these charged particles bomb the Earth's upper atmosphere, the Earth's magnetic field can convert potentially harmful energy into visible light.
That's Aurora.
The stronger the sun explodes, the more the Northern Lights lean South.
In rare cases, the next 48 is seen as its mysterious Emerald dance.
USA Today advertised "a rare opportunity to see the Northern Lights," while insider said the Northern Lights could be as low as Chicago and New York.
NBC News announced that the Northern Lights could reach "Far South ".
But the sky never appeared.
Who knows how many people are shivering under the bright moon until the cold weather beats their patience.
It was not until Sunday night that the sun exploded to attack the Earth, and even so, it did not trigger an Earth storm that triggered the Northern Lights.
Why did the prediction fail?
This is a combination of scientific uncertainty and disease.
Media hype.
"The space weather forecast is the place where the Earth weather forecast returned to the 1960 s," space weather expert tamisa scoff wrote in an email.
She explained the challenges of observing solar storms and why it was so difficult to predict the effects of solar storms.
"When predicting these events, we basically have something similar to a" tornado, "she wrote . ".
"We see them firing from the sun and can estimate their initial velocity in a very small amount of time at launch.
Why is the time window so small?
Sadly, this is the only time we actually see them enough to make measurements.
"SOHO-the solar and solar observatory-is a spaceship that has been observing the sun since 1996.
It provides these initial images to help scientists like Skov simulate the sun burst.
The Solar Dynamics Observatory, launched in 2011, has a similar effect.
But from a useful, real point of view, that's it --time data.
Other observation platforms can send higher-
But by the time they reach the Earth, the solar storm has hit or missed.
First of all, confidence in predictions based solely on satellite images is low.
The next data we get is before the solar storm reaches Earth.
Orbit satellites like DSCOVR
These platforms can monitor some parameters in real time.
But their distance from the Earth limits their usefulness, and they only provide an hour's warning before the solar storm hits.
It's like having a buoy at the end of the dock to measure the upcoming tsunami. “After [they launch]
"It was not until a few days later when the solar storm passed through our upstream satellite monitor very close to Earth that our forecasters really saw the solar storm," Skov explained . ".
"This means that the 92 million miles between the sun and the Earth is an observed 'death area'
Time forecast.
We can't see at all how far the solar storm has gone and what it has encountered on its way forward.
Skov illustrates how difficult it is to fill this gap.
"Imagine trying to predict [the ETA of]
People crossingcountry from L. A.
Washington, DC, "she said.
"They're dealing with highways, Backroads, peaks --
One hour of traffic, collision, bad weather . . . . . .
All you need to do is estimate the time they arrive and they can just reverse the car from the driveway.
"It's not surprising to accurately predict the weather in space and aurora activity.
But Skov, the creator of this popular website.
Com is trying to change this.
She has established followers of 50,000 followers, who she has tapped from the latest observations around the globe.
She emphasized the importance of citizen scientists in this effort, and she fought for the help of citizen scientists
Aurora Forecast during major events.
But the forecast barrier is not the only reason for Saturday's disappointment.
The media hype has also brought hope to those areas where even a successful forecast will not see a bright future.
The space weather center called for the G2 storm.
What does this mean?
The index used to measure magnetic activity should be at 0-9+ scale.
For reference, an average of 360 days occurs every 11 years.
Do we see the Northern Lights half a week in the United States? Nope.
But the media reported this, in part because the sun was very quiet recently.
Just like the first snow of a season is so noteworthy.
Snow is not something special, but any destruction of a quiet spell can be news.
Joe Kunches wrote: "I think the reason why the media often exaggerate the possibility of Aurora is that when they do it right, their readers will be deeply impressed," the space weather expert for the weather gang in the capital
"This phenomenon is so amazing, so brilliant --
It's a bit like Elvis. Unforgettable.
"Theoretically, the G2 storm-one of the levels predicted last weekend-will spill the lights all over the United StatesS. /Canada border.
However, valid words are visible and rarely see them as easily as they seem.
"You need a dark sky without background lighting, a dim Moon, a few clouds, and have to watch at the right time," Kunches stressed . ".
More often than not, the flashy image you see from the United StatesS.
The position gets a little help from the camera.
Prolonged exposure can capture the faint aurora that is hard to detect by the naked eye.
However, occasionally, those of us
The latitude area can be lucky.
"I don't want people to think that they will never see the Aurora if they live in the United States. S. ,” wrote Skov.
"It's as fake as our hype in this recent storm.
"On June 22, 2015, a field magnetic storm climbed to G4, and the magnetic kp index was between 8 and 9 out of 9.
In the south of New England, the visible Northern Lights lean south, forming an hour of glittering white and green curtains.
On 1859, a solar storm called the Carrington incident brought the northern lights to Hawaii and the south of Florida!
In Washington, D. C. C.
It is reported that it is possible to read a newspaper at midnight, and the green waves on it illuminate the newspaper.
If a similar-scale storm occurs again today, the result could be catastrophic and destroy the Earth's grid.