Lithium Ion Batteries and GEVs: False Gods for the New Millennium - 24 volt lifepo4 battery pack

Last Tuesday, a reader sent me a copy of "end Ice Age", a new industry overview of the future of plug-ins by Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milonovich
The newly formed electrified alliance will name the vehicles that support the power grid as electric vehicles.
After spending hours researching the report, I came to the conclusion
When I was still an unwashed heretic, or worse a heretic, Milonovich had found the true religion of the new millennium.
The grim reality is that when you look at America's energy policy as a belief,
It is a new religion that has its own rigid doctrine, dogma, and ceremony and it begins to make sense.
This explains why our minister of energy is satisfied with his public comment on the agnostic nature gas.
This also explains why coastal waters in California and Florida, as well as large stretches of Alaska, have been seen as sacred places.
That even explains why climate scientists
Clerics and fanatic believers find it reasonable to suppress the facts and reject the skeptics who call them their world --
Views on the issue.
This is the 21st century version of the Spanish religious referee. I am sitting in the front row. What fun!
The Milunovich report is my third bullish analysis of GEVs since the beginning of October.
The other two come from Credit Suisse and HSBC.
All three reports are poetic about the potential for fuel savings and carbon dioxide reduction in electric vehicles, all three reports believe that the cost of the battery pack will decline from the current level of about $1,200 per vehicle in the next five to ten years, about $500 per kilowatt hour, all three countries have warned that unless lithium-
Ion battery developers can deliver on their promise to make cheap, powerful, durable and safe products.
The fundamental problem with these three reports is that they did not ask whether the premise of the electric car was reality or the blue smoke and mirrors.
The only way to answer this question is to show a side with a spreadsheetby-
Side Comparison of alternatives.
I will try to keep it simple. Reality vs.
Blue Smoke and mirrors the best information I can get is that the capital cost of a new lithium ion battery plant is about $1,000 per kWh.
The table below provides a simplified analysis of the economic impact of the hypothetical $0. 5 billion plant.
It provides a baseline column for conventional diesel locomotives, along with additional columns that allocate 100% of the plant capacity to leaf-level BEVs, Volt-level phev, and Prius-level h.
To minimize the dispute, I assume that the battery costs $500 per kilowatt hour;
Each car travels 12,000 miles a year;
Each GEV will get 4 miles of electricity.
The range of charges per kWh;
All electric vehicles will use utilities that emit an average of 585 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour nationwide.
While in the context of a gasoline-fueled vehicle, the value of the hybrid vehicle in the table is very attractive, if you analyze it further and take into account the potential use of CNG as an alternative fuel for conventional electric vehicles, they will become very beautiful.
Think about it-a hybrid car with CNG fuel does not use imported oil, and its carbon footprint is lower than the BEV that uses normal utility power.
The only significant downside is that the retail CNG distribution system is not well developed, but because the natural gas distribution backbone in the United States is universal, powerful and more modern than the grid, this obstacle is relatively easy to solve.
When you calculate the gasoline savings and carbon dioxide reduction for every dollar of capital investment, no technology is better than an advanced lead.
Carbon Battery for start-upstop micro-hybrids.
In the long run, invest $0. 5 billion in factories and equipment for micro-enterprises
The hybrid battery will allow the production of 7.
About $1 for 5 million vehicles per year.
Battery sales are 9 billion, gasoline consumption is reduced by 0. 18 billion gallons, and carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by 1.
7 million metric tons.
In other words, the $68 million grant for ARRA battery manufacturing is likely to lead
Carbon battery manufacturers will generate greater gasoline savings and carbon dioxide reductions compared to $1.
2 billion of ARRA grants for lithium-
Ion Battery Company
This is not a question of faith.
Numbers cannot lie, the magnitude of the difference is too large to be ignored.
If you really want to make a difference, you take the baby's steps and get low.
Hang fruit first
No one has a spreadsheet and a preliminary understanding of mathematics, and it can be honestly argued that subsidizing the batteries of electric vehicles will help subsidize the batteries of Prius-class electric vehicles using the same funds.
Adding the cost of GEV charging stations to a bad economy will produce a picture that no one else will like except blind loyal people.
There is no doubt that various gev will be introduced in the coming years, as this is the requirement of the new religion.
For obvious reasons, I think this is just a flash in the pan.
When I did background research for this article, the hype cycle, I came across a very rich chart with the title "Hype Cycle for emerging technologies ", tiax llc adapted from the concept of Gartner Group and presented this chart on the plugin
Meeting on 2008
The chart is particularly useful for investors because, in addition to showing how the public view of technology has evolved over time, it also shows how the early markets of stock securities have developed.
While TIAX suggested that PHEVs approach its peak visibility level in May 2008, I don't think we'll be able to reach our peak until 2012 at the earliest.
By 2015, when a large number of GEV are sold to consumers, they will be annoyed to find that their oh so sexy GEV has no more than 20 feet of the power cord connected to the expensive GEV, don't like the temperament of hot, cold or mountain and inflexible car supermodel, and have a nasty habit of spending hours charging and refreshing when you need it most, we should go well into the trough of the illusion.
I can almost hear the phone talking now, "I know Johnny Jr.
I need to go to the doctor and see that vomit thing, but I just plugged my GEV into the charging station and I can't go to school in four hours.
Can you please do your best to make him a little more comfortable, give him a book or an aspirin and tell him dad will be there soon?
"I'm a big fan of hard --core economics.
There is no fundamental problem with government subsidies for manufacturers that support key infrastructure and have reasonable opportunities to achieve their stated goals.
When taxpayer money is used to subsidize the consumption of luxury goods, it is completely different.
If the basic business premise is reasonable, the new factory will make the economy richer. Eco-
The huge subsidy for new believers makes no sense in sound public policy.
We deserve better.
The super model of the energy storage department including A123 System (AONE), Ener1 (ev) and Valence Technology (VLNC) performed well on the hype cycle curve and was close
By contrast, a strong supporter of the battery business, including Exide Technologies (XIDE) and Johnson Controls (JCI), and like Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) and Axion Power International (ax.
OB) is making disruptive enhancements to existing battery technologies, but their technology trigger points are approaching. As stop-
In the next few years, start-up and light hybrid technology became the standard equipment for internal combustion engines, and I believe these neglected low
Pricing companies with sustainable business models in the real world of pagans and Pagans will sparkle.
Disclosure: The author is a former director and executive of Axion Power International and holds a large long-term position in its shares.
He also has a place in Exide technology.