Paris agreement reached at COP21
Responding to climate change in December has caused a variety of reactions.
Some people think that this is a truly historic agreement, which has fundamentally accelerated. . .
The carbon of our energy mix, while others think there is nothing really changing.
First of all, keep the global temperature rising below 2 degrees Celsius and hope to limit global warming below 1 degree Celsius. 5°C.
Second, most countries have announced voluntary commitments to curb emissions (158 submissions involving 185 countries, accounting for global emissions ).
These documents are the first step and most countries will have to announce further cuts in 2020 and continue to increase them every five years.
Third, developed countries should provide $100 billion annually to poor countries by 2025, followed by increased funding.
The above problem is that the action taken did not meet the expected result of limiting global warming to less than 2 °c, forgetting 1. 5°C. Not even close.
Before Paris, assuming there is no change in policy, we are expected to achieve a global warming trajectory of about 3. 6°C.
Despite all our commitments in Paris, we will see improvements, but emissions will continue to rise by 2030 and the path to global warming will improve to 2. 7°C.
Improvement, but not enough.
In order to limit the warming to 2 °c, CO2 emissions must be cut by 25 percentage points more than already promised.
Limit global warming to 1.
According to Bernstein Research, we will need to cut emissions by an additional 40 by 2030.
To make people aware of the magnitude of the task, additional emission reductions are needed to limit warming to 1.
5 °C means the whole stage
Remove coal from the energy mix and replace oil from all transport uses
All this by 2030.
Obviously unlikely.
As can be seen from this point, the goal is 1.
5 °c is impractical and we will see much higher emissions reductions than promised --
This is inevitable.
This brings us the problem of stranded carbon: the concept that some proven reserves of fossil fuels will never be burned and will continue to stay.
Taking into account the challenges of the total carbon budget, in order to remain within the target range of 2 °C, we have only about 1,100 gigs of carbon dioxide that can still be launched.
Assuming today's emissions peak (unlikely), we only have 22 years or until 2037 before the carbon emissions have to reach zero.
From another point of view, the proven reserves of fossil fuels at present are about 812 billion tons of oil equivalent (oil, natural gas and coal ).
Burning only all of these proven reserves (which are not calculated or have reserves or have not yet been discovered) will result in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of about 2,512 gt.
If we were to stay within a 2 °C framework, there would be no incremental emissions of more than 1,100 gt in the world.
Therefore, the existing proven reserves of fossil fuels cannot exceed that of burning.
Probably less, because some carbon budget will be
Fossil fuel applications like agriculture.
In the fossil fuel carbon budget, coal will be lost due to the carbon intensity and richness of coal.
Bernstein estimates only 25-
The world's proven coal reserves will be utilized.
Given its relative carbon efficiency, more than half of the oil reserves will be burned and more than 60 of the gas reserves will be burned.
Given that oil companies have short reserve life and fast mining, they will not suffer from stranded assets.
Unlike many sovereign countries like Iran and Iraq, their reserves are working too slowly.
Any oil and gas detention will come at the expense of the sovereign state of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC.
First of all, we need to increase coal production as soon as possible, otherwise most of our coal will never be burned.
There may be a limited window of 20-
Coal has been in use for 25 years, and beyond that it is impossible to use.
Secondly, it is possible for us to see the OPEC member states produce as much oil as possible, if countries like Iran and Iraq are convinced that if they continue to produce at the current rate of exploitation, most of their oil will never be burned.
The carbon race will seriously hurt oil pricing.
We may have seen some form of performance of this dynamic, as OPEC production continues to be surprising during the slump in oil prices.
The Saudis may be playing a game, not just crushing American shale: they may just maximize the value of their reserves by pumping oil flat.
Third, natural gas will be the only way to reduce emissions in the short term and provide low-carbon bridges and energy storage systems for renewable energy, electric vehicles, until they are economically viable.
We need to make sure
Connection of natural gas;
In the future, it will be more important than oil.
Lock in long-
It may be prudent to sign regular contracts today when prices are low.
An unstoppable shift in coal and other high-carbon fuels (oil sands) is underway.
This will benefit low-carbon fuels such as natural gas and zero-carbon fuels.
Carbon technologies such as renewable energy, energy storage systems, batteries and electric vehicles.
The current emissions come from electricity generation and transportation;
With the prominence of electric cars and solar energy combined with energy storage, both will be disturbed.
We need to gain a technical position in these new areas.
China already dominates the solar sector, and South Korea is leading the way in battery technology for electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
India must build a viable ecological environment using our possible leapfrogging and massive adoption of these new technologies.
Systems in these areas.
We should encourage local participants in both areas.