Charles Kennedy for oil
The Com2018 is a bad year for commodities, but few industries perform as badly as lithium.
The key battery metal, also known as "white oil", has struggled to get through the 50% price correction with soaring supplies and a panic of demand spreading like wildfire.
But now is not the time to give up the lithium inventory.
The hard rising stars
Rock lithium space is changing the industry, and they are able to extract lithium from the brine at a lower cost and faster rate than the lithium giant.
In short, there's a new producer in town.
With lithium demand soaring again, the timing is no better for them. Three stops-
In difficult companies
There are alble le (NYSE: white), China Tianqi Lithium (SZSE: 002466) and power metal (TSXV: PWM) in the current rock mining space)
These companies are able to bring lithium to market faster and cleaner than their salt water
Based on competitors.
However, before studying the hard rock lithium space, we need to take a closer look at the market itself.
In general, supply
In fact, the balance of demand is much more important than the price display.
After all, the surge in demand in the technology and energy sectors triggered a rapid increase in lithium in 2018, but it did not disappear overnight.
The lithium boom began in 2014 with prices rising from less than $6 a tonne to more than $16 a tonne in 2018.
With the surge in demand, billions of dollars have invested in new coal mines, and salt water deposits in Chile and China have received the greatest attention.
But a few years later, Wall Street began to doubt more lithium.
On February 2018, Morgan Stanley released a crushing report: the company determined that Chile's salt water would increase 200kt to the market by 2025, effectively doubling the supply.
This led to a slump in lithium prices.
Lithium carbonate prices have fallen by 50 in China.
31%, overwhelmed by reports of oversupply.
But by the end of the year, some of these concerns have begun to dissipate.
Large projects expected to flood the market are beginning to suffer delays.
You see, it will take some time for the production of brine lithium, which accounts for most of the market, to begin: Brine is pumped to the surface, where it evaporates to form potassium deposits containing lithium.
Take the example of the Orocobre in Brisbane, Australia, and the Salar de Olaroz plant in Argentina, which was originally intended to supply 42 vehicles. 5k tons.
Delays, legal issues and increasing costs have basically stopped the project.
The extraction of lithium by evaporation of salt water can generate huge gains, but only companies with capital can see them: as a result, the lithium industry is dominated by large companies such as Albemarle, the Cuban Women's Federation (NYSE: FMC) and square meter (NYSE: square meter ).
The prices of these big companies fell last year as the lithium bubble burst after Morgan Stanley's report and concerns about future oversupply.
But that doesn't mean the lithium party is over.
In fact, it may have just begun. Hard-
Rock lithium miners in hot spots such as Australia, Canada and China are preparing for the next bull market for this key commodity.
The legendary Greenbush mine, operated by Apocalypse (SZSE: 002466) and Albemarle, has been in operation for 30 years, producing a safety derived from "lithium salt" and "a high contentgrade lithium.
On the other side of the Earth in Northeastern Ontario, not far from the Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Battery
The production of "gigafactory" is a prolific case Lake property of 100% claimed by electric metal.
The lithium retention lithium pyroxene here was found in the weijingyan area, and SGS Canada is currently conducting metallurgical tests on the weijingyan area. Hard-
Mine miners not only have cleaner production methods, they also have a leg in the competition as they may bring new supplies to the market faster than their salt water --Mining peers do.
According to the Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, there is a huge difference between lithium prices and lithium demand.
In September 2018, analysts at the CRU estimated that this year's lithium surplus was only 22 k tons, compared with a demand of 277 k tons.
Let's take a look at the main demand drivers for lithium.
First, there are electric cars.
According to Argus media reports, lithium
Ion batteries in electric vehicles increased from 10 GWh to 70 GWh in just ten years, and the market is estimated to reach 223 GWh by 2025, an increase of 300x over the current level.
Electric vehicles have already started in the United States, with sales up 81% in 2018, although sales are expected to increase in 2019. EVs take up 2.
4% of the total number of vehicles in the United States.
Demand in China is indeed soaring.
More than 2 million electric vehicles will be sold this year, up from one.
1 million last year.
This is part of the government's plan, and the market share of electric vehicles will reach 50% by 2025.
Consumers in Europe are also turning to electric vehicles, which currently account for a significant proportion of the fleet in Norway, the Netherlands and France.
Sales of electric vehicles in Europe rose 67%, with Renault and Nissan leading the way.
Fastmarket expects the market penetration rate of electric vehicles to rise to 15% by 2025 from the current 2%.
But China is one of the most important auto markets in the world. with such ambitious plans, this number may be conservative.
According to Simon Moores, a benchmark mining company, the increase in demand for electric vehicles and battery storage "triggered a wave of lithium-
For example, Tesla's famous Geely factory.
Currently, 70 lithium
The "giant" plant for ion batteries is under construction, compared with 17 in October 2017.
Elon Musk hopes to produce 20 Gigabit batteries for Tesla electric vehicles in the next decade.
Benchmark believes that by 2028, the new demand for the new plant will increase by 534,000 tons (the current demand is 200,000 tons ).
This is another requirement.
Side factor: demand for lithium as the energy storage industry grows
Ion batteries will advance by leaps and bounds.
It is estimated that the market size will reach US $92 billion by 2024, with a compound growth rate of 16%.
The market is worth $21.
2018 6 billion.
A slightly conservative estimate is that by 2025, the market will reach $40 billion, but in less than a decade, the figure is still growing by nearly 100%.
Another estimate is that it will reach $60 billion by 2024.
Bloomberg raised its forecast for lithium as prices fell
Ion batteries due to lower than expected price.
The best estimates come from global market insights that predict energy storage and automotive lithium-
By 2024, the demand for ion batteries will double.
GMI's expectation is that most of the new battery production will come from China, where the battery has a large internal market.
So, how will this develop in the lithium industry?
The main point here is the traditional production of lithium. through salt-
Evaporation of salt water-
A new, more competitive way of production may lose market share, in particular, lithium pyroxene or "hard"
"Rock" lithium mining, extraction of lithium by direct drilling into rich deposits.
It's cheaper, easier and faster to extract lithium in this way
It began to attract more attention, with multiple spodumene businesses appearing in Australia.
The lithium giant alble le has stopped all expansion of the South American salt water, so-
Known as the "Lithium Triangle", instead, it has been putting resources into the greenhouse project, which is doubling its capacity.
Demand for lithium pyroxene reflects a rise in prices, which soared in 2018 despite the overall decline in lithium prices.
In 2018, there were four new spodumene businesses.
But in China, General Lithium
A new ore converter project is being planned, which will double the lithium capacity by the end of 2020.
The plant will absorb and convert it into lithium-
The company estimates that there are 60,000 tons per year.
135,000 tons of lithium.
As we mentioned earlier, Canadians
Rock Miner Power Metal Company drilled about 15,000 m in its very valuable Case Lake in the NorthEast Ontario.
In fact, in North America last year, there were more hard rock lithium companies for electric metal mining than any other one.
The size of its deposits is very impressive and easy to mine because they are very close to the surface.
The average score is also world-class, about 1 point.
75% Li20 with intervals of up to 3.
5%, it directly competes with projects such as Greenbushes in Australia, the world's largest hard-run project
Rock lithium mine.
In addition to the prolific Case Lake project, Power Metals is also developing Lake Paterson and Gullwing Tot Lake properties in Ontario, possibly the next race, according to its vice president of exploration, Julie Selwaychanging hard-
There is rock lithium in Canada.
Electric metal is just an example of this new trend in the field of lithium.
The industry as a whole is transforming from within, and with prices stabilizing, investors have plenty of opportunities in 2019.
The revival of lithium is in progress, which is hard
The miners who found themselves at the forefront of the campaign.
I am/We are long PWRMF.
This article was written by myself and expressed my views.
I was not compensated.
I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: not an investment consultant. Oilprice.
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