greenpower: the electric bus market's quiet achiever - lifepo4 rechargeable battery

Age of battery electric vehicles (BEV)
As BEVs continue to expand the electric fleet, the early adopters have proven the cost-effectiveness of BEVs and the bus has arrived.
A proper example is Foothill Transit in Los Angeles County, one of the first Transit operators to adopt BEVs, now promising to convert their entire fleet of 380 buses into battery power by 2030
Foothill Transit has so far had to purchase exclusively the buses made by Proterra, which, according to Proterra, has the following lifetime operating savings compared to the ICE bus option :(
From the Proterra website)
The picture above also highlights the biggest remaining obstacle to BEV adoption: a pre-premium of about $250,000 higher than the price tag for CNG and diesel buses.
While it is often said that this cost difference can be eliminated as the cost of the battery continues to decline, it does not seem to be the only factor.
A typical 150-mile bus with a charge of 40 feet miles takes about 340 KW hours of battery capacity.
Use the current mid-
The cost of the $500 battery series per kWh is only $170,000, so even if the cost of the battery drops to half the price today, the price of BEV will also be about 33% higher than the price tag for CNG and diesel options.
In other words, the cost of the BEV bus is higher even if the battery is put in for free.
However, higher manufacturing rates and technological advances in ancillary components will ultimately enable BEV bus manufacturers to achieve the goal of approaching the ICE bus price tag.
More importantly, once the public is used to the benefits of low noise and zero Street emissions, the higher upfront costs of BEVs will reduce the importance.
At present, there are about 70,000 buses operating in the United States and 480,000 school buses, with an average operating life cycle of 12 and 15 years respectively.
As shown in the table below, this represents the total potential market volume of approximately $5.
$2 billion per year.
On April 2017, Proterra announced that since the establishment of BEV, they have sold 100 BEV buses, accounting for more than 60% of the sales of BEV buses. from 2010, the sales of BEV buses began.
In nominal terms, the total number of BEV transit buses sold on the market to date can be inferred to be 167 or about 0.
Over the past six years, 5% of buses have been sold.
This is a real good time in a particular industry, as a disruptive technology has proven to be economically superior to existing systems, with less than 1% of the current market share.
After this turning point, BEV technology will gradually replace the traditional bus technology.
Currently, in California, in particular, government tax incentives and grants are helping to accelerate the development and adoption of BEV bus technologies.
However, considering that the life-span operating costs of the BEV bus system are already lower compared to the traditional ICE scheme, government incentives will become less and less important.
Due to the tight annual budget, the transition of public schools will be more problematic, but these should be relatively easily overcome once appropriate financing arrangements have been established with end users.
As BEV expected, there are two basic methods for BEV bus technology;
The first is to transform the old bus design with the new battery technology, and the second is to provide new uses.
BEV bus designed from scratch.
In fact, all the established bus manufacturers choose to adopt the modification scheme, including the following major manufacturers: Although all modification manufacturers will save attractive costs for customers, this approach may eventually prove more competitive than the purpose.
The option of belavumab.
Still, companies such as new flyers and NovaBus/Volvo will be very strong competitors in the emerging BEV bus market as their designs are very close to BEV's targets --
Bus design.
In the category of purpose-
Mainstream media typically report on the latest milestones achieved by Proterra or BYD, which is well justified as they are the largest and most eye-catching BEV OEMs in the market.
Founded in Golden CO in 2004, Proterra is a true North American pioneer in the development of specially built BEV buses.
Their first sales order was for three buses, which were delivered to Foothill Transit in Los Angeles County at a $1 price, as mentioned in the opening paragraph of this article. 2 million each.
Proterra's first factory opened in Greenville SC in 2011, and in 2016 they opened a second factory in the industrial city of Los Angeles County.
They are still a private company so far, but are expected to go public in 2018.
This much-anticipated IPO is expected to significantly increase the general investment community's awareness of the BEV transit bus story.
Founded in China in 1995, BYD is a rechargeable battery manufacturer.
They quickly grew into one of the world's largest manufacturers of rechargeable batteries and expanded to terminals
Use products such as cars, trucks and buses.
In 2013, they opened a bus manufacturing plant in Lancaster CA.
Although BYD is a bit behind Proterra in building its own position in North America, they are still the undisputed leader in global electric bus sales (
Currently, more than 4000 buses are sold annually in China alone).
Berkshire Hathaway owns a 10% stake in BYD.
Although Proterra and BYD have dominated the media, there is actually a third competitor, the green energy Motor Company (OTCQX:GPVRF)
From Canada, offering a wider range of buses than Proterra and BYD, as shown in the following table: greenPower, founded in 2010, is the youngest and smallest BEV bus company on the market.
Their ability to offer a variety of sizes and models comes from their "clean paper" proprietary design, combined with manufacturing flexibility and the use of components from world-class manufacturers, enables them to provide customized designs that meet the individual requirements of their customers.
Built with a single body with a stainless steel chassis and a proprietary "Flex Power" drive motor control system, they are the only manufacturer that does not have the battery on the roof of the bus, instead, they are placed in the chassis to achieve a lower center of gravity, thus providing a high degree of stability and stable driving.
GreenPower buses are equipped with lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4)
Batteries that require more space than lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO)
Electric passenger cars usually use batteries, but the battery has a longer service life, higher power transmission rate and higher safety.
Proterra and BYD also use lithium-ion batteries.
Green power bus based on single charge length
Range Operation relative to en-
The route fast charging system frequently used in early BEV bus applications.
As the cost of the battery decreases, en-
There will be fewer line charges.
This choice ultimately depends on the end user's own situation, but the single charging system greatly reduces the requirements of the infrastructure, eliminates frequent charging stations, and allows buses to choose alternative routes if necessary
So far, green power buses have been made in China and finally assembled in California, but in June 2017, the company broke ground at a new 145,000-square-foot manufacturing plant in portsville, California, equivalent to the size of BYD and Proterra plants in California.
As a small
In order to survive for a long time, GreenPower's management team has always adopted a conservative attitude towards the development of the company.
Before October 2016
BYD executive Brendan Riley was appointed president of the company, bringing a wealth of BEV development experience to the already strong management team.
The following gives a brief overview of GreenPower's historical sales development: as a long-term investor in GreenPower, I must admit that after announcing an agreement with AMC and ADOMANI, I feel the lack of actual sales
AMC has not yet purchased a bus, and despite the milestone schedule and subsequent LOIs, only two school buses have been sold to ADOMANI.
I personally believe that ADOM investors should take this performance record into account when considering that the current forecast of ADOMANI is to start with negative net income of $10.
2016 was 7 million, cash flow was positive in 2017, and net income increased by 560% in 2018.
Hopefully they have more to support such a lofty goal than a drawer full of LOIs.
At the same time, GreenPower's gentle and quiet winners are currently predicting their future sales as follows :(
Report from GreenPower investors, March 2017)
Assuming an average revenue of $500,000 per bus, this is equivalent to 30 buses sold in 2018, 64 buses sold in 2018, and 160 buses sold in 2020.
For a company with highly flexible products and a brand new factory capable of producing 400 buses a year, this seems to be a very conservative estimate.
Green energy comes with the risks inherent in the micro-economy
Cap seeking to compete with established companies
Competitors in capital.
Stocks are highly liquid and it is not uncommon for a few days to pass without one stock being traded.
Since customers usually only advance 10% of their advance payment on orders, it is necessary for the company to bear the initial production costs that may require further dilution of the share.
If the company does not have a large backlog of orders when Proterra goes public, investor sentiment may shift to Proterra and have a negative impact on GreenPower's ability to raise future capital.
GreenPower offers a compelling alternative to the BEV bus provided by more mature competitors.
As these markets prepare for a gradual transition to all, they are ready to supply the BEV bus and school bus markets
Power System.
With a very strong management team, the company provides an excellent risk/return investment for investors familiar with micro-enterprises
Limit space and be willing to hold shares for a long time.
Disclosure: I am a long term green energy company but have no position in any other stock mentioned.
I have no plans to buy or sell any positions in the next 72 hours.
I am/We are green energy for a long time.
This article was written by myself and expressed my views.
I was not compensated.
I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.
Editor's note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks.
Please note the risks associated with these stocks.