In the past few weeks, a series of new studies have been conducted on batteries.
Not the one in your phone, but a more revolutionary product-a product that has powered many cars and may one day help you power your home.
For example, a recent study on energy policy found that the cost of batteries in household systems (
Storage of energy collected by roof solar panels)
Starting to fall-although even with these systems, it may not be economically optimal for most people to give up the grid altogether.
Another report from the Rocky Mountain Institute also found that in some places, the most economical option for home energy in 10 to 15 years may be solar cell systems, this means that the traditional power grid may have a lot of "load loss ".
Finally, a new study on natural climate change shows that the cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (such as Teslas-14 %) has dropped significantly since 2007.
All of this is considered revolutionary. “Solar-plus-
Bloomberg commentator Noah Smith recently wrote: "The battery will begin a dramatic shift in human civilization," not only did he comment on the decline in battery prices for electric vehicles, but it is also possible to use more batteries at home.
But it should be noted that
People who have a home battery system paired with solar panels are sure to exist, but are very rare at the moment.
One problem is that right now, there are not many ways to get home energy storage system investments paid off.
So, why do some analysts still think that solar cell systems may become very common in the home, perhaps faster than we thought?
Here are some reasons: the first one is that solar energy on the roof has arrived.
The Solar Energy Industry Association has found that over 50% roof solar energy has been used in the past three years (
2012, 2013 and 2014)
A new Bloomberg New Energy Finance report predicts a record market growth in 2015. In-
For most people, the home battery is definitely a lot farther away, but many similar situations have been noticed.
For example, a recent energy policy document states that "it is expected that battery technology may follow the fast-price-down trajectory of PV [s]
Solar photovoltaic
With the expansion of manufacturing scale
Bodhi Reid of the Rocky Mountain Institute said: "There are 10 years to store today from PV . ".
"It's going along the same trend and there's constant innovation, but there's still some battleground in what's winning in technology or chemistry.
"The report from the Rocky Mountain Institute suggests that home solar cell combinations may challenge the traditional business models of many utilities when they arrive.
It is worth noting that the voice from the industry itself has shown some concern.
For example, in 2013, the Edison Electrical Institute of the utility industry trading group published a report on the "disruptive challenges" of the industry, which states: or listen to David Crane, the CEO of the energy giant NRG says his company is "moving towards distributed generation --
A clean energy future centered on individual choice and enhanced US energy consumer capabilities.
"Perhaps the biggest driver of battery enthusiasm, though, is the company that has sold stylish batteries --
Electric vehicle-Tesla.
According to the climate change study mentioned above, Tesla not only saw a decline in the cost of car batteries.
Once the company works with Panasonic to turn on the battery, it may just be a start
Building a gigabit factory in Nevada ". [
Betting on Tesla's gigabit factory in the Nevada desert]
The company said it would further reduce the cost of batteries, thus reducing the cost of electric vehicles.
This could then also spill over to the home battery.
"Consumer electronics and electric vehicles are the two industries that make storage economical," said Bodhi Reid. "the continued adoption of consumers in these related industries will continue to drive cost reductions.
"In a sense, Teslas represents a proof of principle for home batteries.
"Actually, it's much easier to put it in the House than in the car.
In a fixed application, weight doesn't matter, "said Peter Lilienthal of Homer Energy.
The report of the Rocky Mountain Institute was written.
Finally, there is a lot of discussion about Tesla's plan to launch a home battery.
If there is so much focus on a product like Tesla's car at the moment, then that adds another major, if more intangible factor-cool. [
This new Tesla battery will power your home or power the grid]
Radernotes of the Rocky Mountain Institute notes that in this case, one may be willing to pay a considerable amount of money for household batteries, even before the price drops to the level of "economic rationality, considering the expected return on their investment (
In the form of lower electricity charges).
"If the company is able to start showing this calm factor, I think it will completely change the conversation," he said.
So this is an optimistic case.
However, in order to avoid us going too far on the skis, let us note again that there are still many concerns and uncertainties.
First of all, Tesla has a lot of skeptics, including a commentator at the energy group, who points out that in addition to the technical pessimism about the battery itself --
Or if their costs will drop enough to make them a viable option for most homeowners --
A key issue is what impact a large number of batteries have on the grid.
The report from the Rocky Mountain Institute points out that widespread adoption of solar cell systems in homes could hit power grid maintenance.
The reason is that we need to make a lot of investment in the power grid, and the customer of the power load "defect" will not pay so much for the power, so, there will not be much contribution to the cost of these infrastructure improvements.
Basically, if utility companies make less money because their customers pay less, then utility companies may invest less.
The less modern grid is less reliable.
But there is also a view that this trend will help strengthen the grid.
First of all, in addition to entering the home, larger batteries can also help restore the power grid.
James Mandel of the Rocky Mountain Institute notes that batteries can "do a lot of balancing and grid management services at a cheaper price.
"In addition, Lilienthal of Homer Energy added that solar-cell homeowners may temporarily stop getting electricity from power companies, thus helping the grid in the midst of a crisis.
After all, when there is a power outage, they will probably charge the battery at home.
"When the grid is unable to handle the demand, they may fall," Lilienthal said . ".
However, he added that it may need to get these homeowners to what he calls a "break-rate," which means they will get less power from the grid, but their services may stop at certain critical moments.
All in all, this is an exciting moment for battery forecasters, and there are a lot of trends that make people excited.
But we can only determine one thing for the future.
It may not be as predicted by anyone today.