elon musk's dream for tesla could be an investor's nightmare - house battery

Elon Musk has a vision for the future, and most people want to see that vision come true.
The plan makes Tesla a company worth investing in, which is far less certain.
Tesla Motor (TSLA -Get Report)
On Wednesday night, the CEO released the company's latest master plan to expand the focus to electric vehicles and other transportation sectors.
Sharing, green power generation.
Musk said Tesla's goal is to accelerate the emergence of "sustainable energy" to improve humanity.
"By definition, we have to achieve a sustainable energy economy at some point, otherwise we will run out of fossil fuel to burn and civilization will collapse," Musk wrote . ".
"Considering that we have to be separated from fossil fuels anyway, and that almost all scientists agree that it is crazy to significantly increase atmospheric and marine carbon levels, the sooner we achieve sustainability, the better.
Musk is pushing Tesla to buy SolarCity (SCTY)
He owns another company with a large stake and envisions combining SolarCity's panels with Tesla's interior panels
The house battery pack "creates an amazing solar roof with a seamless integrated battery storage" while not only bringing electric vehicles to market, but also bringing electric commercial trucks and buses to market.
Self-driving work will also continue towards the goal of allowing vehicles to ship customers to their destinations to make money without being used by car owners.
Not included in 1,400-
Word manifesto is any discussion about how to pay all of these costs, or the timeline envisaged by Musk.
Given that Tesla already has all the information, these details should be important for investors.
"If the first part of Elon Musk's overall plan is like sending a person to the moon, the second part is more like colonizing the Galaxy," Edmonds said . ".
Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis.
"The plan sounds too ambitious at the moment, especially given the question of whether Tesla can achieve its goals for the next two years.
"Tesla raised more than $1 earlier this year.
4 billion in the secondary issue of funding its already ambitious agenda, which calls for more
The number of affordable Model 3 vehicles and deliveries next year increased from 50,000 last year to 500,000 in 2018 and 1 million in 2020.
Some analysts have raised doubts about the company's balance sheet before pushing the acquisition --
Losing SolarCity, the company faces huge capital expenditures over the next few years as it completes vehicle development and accelerates manufacturing.
Brian Johnson, an analyst at Barclays, has a lower rating on Tesla's shares, noting that Tesla "dug $4" in carrying out its current plan ".
The 2 billion loopholes in finance have led to a series of funds raising a total of $6. 2 billion.
Johnson said the revised plan is similar to most of Tesla's practices. -
The exciting outlook for the future is very long, and the description of financial details is very short.
Tesla's share price rose by 1.
38% on Wednesday, down 1.
Trading before Thursday 7%
Tesla's history was in trouble before the deadline, and few people took seriously the target of 500,000 cars by 2018.
But in his post, Musk seems to suggest that the Model 3 might fall behind, saying that the "factory machine" described as "version 0 ".
5 Version 1 "will be ready next year ".
Probably in 2018.
"It takes time and a lot of money to build a factory.
Musk's current production target already requires Tesla's dominance in Fremont, California.
Even if new trucks or buses are not added, the production level of the factory is far beyond the previous level.
Musk said Tesla's trucks and buses are in the early stages of development and should be prepared for the unveiling next year. "But there is no timeline given as to when or where these products will be available.
Profits can also be a problem. Tesla --
At least on the basis of recognized accounting principles-
Every car sold today loses money.
The company hopes that with the launch of the battery plant, this situation will change over time, thus reducing the cost of one of the most expensive parts of the car, and as production grows, it also benefits from other economies of scale.
But even if these savings are achieved, the average selling price of the company seems destined to drop sharply in the next few years, as the price of Model 3 is about half of the cost of the existing Model and goes online.
At the same time, every market Tesla determines is brewing competition.
In its core car market, Tesla will soon face its first serious competitor, General Motors (GM -Get Report)and Nissan (NSANY)
Introduce yourself long-
Other electric vehicles, including BMW, followed suit.
Earlier this year, a consortium of European truck manufacturers showed a half-run
Most of these large truck manufacturers are at least getting involved in their own version of commercial vehicle electric trains. The ride-
Sharing part of Musk's vision also seems like a great way to do it.
The CEO talked about the ability to summon vehicles from anywhere when the real self
But he also admitted that it would not happen overnight.
Musk estimates that the global regulator's approval of autonomous driving will require a fleet of 6 billion miles to learn, at the current rate of about 3 million miles per day, which will take more than five years.
In short, most of Musk's plans are still in the early stages and face deeper competition --
Many of their competitors, if not further on the path of development, have at least gone further than testera.
It is easy to fall into Musk's vision of the green future, and it is understandable to cheer for this vision to become a reality.
For an investor, it is very different to bet his nest eggs on a particular company that will successfully bring this future to market and profit from it.
Musk, at Tesla's annual general meeting, admitted that he and other founders provided Tesla with most of the initial funding because they realized that the company's plans were bold, "We all think it might fail.
"To Musk's credit, Tesla has gone a long way since then, and the bet on him so far is a failed offer.
But his initial analysis remains what individual investors should remember, even if he is surprised by the vision for the future.