electric cars’ breakout could be near - lithium ion battery cost

With the world's automakers putting more bets on electric vehicle technology, many industry analysts are debating a key question: How fast is charging
Cars become mainstream?
The traditional view is that electric vehicles will remain a niche product for many years, plagued by high prices and heavily dependent on government subsidies.
But more and more analysts believe the pessimism is out of date.
A new report from Bloomberg's New Energy Finance research group shows the price of the plug
Thanks to cheaper batteries and aggressive policies that have driven the decline in car prices, the speed is much faster than expected
Emissions from China and Europe.
The organization predicts that between 2025 and 2030, Plug and Play
The vehicle will become the cost of competing with traditional oil.
Even without subsidies, electric vehicles can be used even before considering saving fuel.
Once this happens, large-scale adoption should happen soon.
"Our projections do not depend on countries that adopt strict new fuel standards or climate policies," said Colin erphier acher, senior transport analytics director, New Energy Finance, Bloomberg.
"It's an economic analysis to see what happens when the upfront cost of electric vehicles reaches parity.
When the real change happens
If this prediction is successful, it will have a huge impact on the automotive industry, the oil market and the world's efforts to slow global warming.
Last year, a boost from batteriesLast, plug-in
Due to the high cost in the early stage, the global sales of new passenger cars less than 1%.
GM's Chevrolet Bolt sold for about $37,500 before the federal tax cut.
With gasoline prices hovering around $2 a gallon, consumers seem to be less interested.
But there are signs of change.
Both Tesla and Volkswagen plan to produce more than 1 million electric vehicles a year by 2025.
On Wednesday, Volvo announced that it would phase out the traditional internal combustion engine, and that all of its new models would be hybrid or fully battery-powered, starting in 2019. powered.
Those who are skeptical believe that most of these initiatives are trivial.
Exxon oil, which is working on a possible threat to its business model for electric vehicles, still expects,
Car sales will grow slowly, accounting for only 10% of new US sales by 2040, with little impact on global oil use.
The federal Energy Information Administration expects oil prices to rise equally slowly.
Bloomberg's forecast is far more aggressive, predicting plug
In hybrid and all
Electric vehicles will account for 54% of new light
By 2040, global tariff sales exceeded those of internal combustion engines. The reason? Batteries.
Average cost of lithium since 2010
The ion battery pack has dropped twice.
About $300 per kilowatt-hour.
According to Bloomberg's report, by 2030, due to companies such as Tesla increasing battery production in large factories and optimizing the design of battery packs, the number dropped to $73 without any major technological breakthroughs.
Over the next decade, electric vehicles will continue to rely on government incentives and sales tasks in Europe, China and California, the report said.
But as automakers roll out more types of models and lower costs, electric cars will reach the point where they can stand on their own.
However, this result is difficult to guarantee.
Governments can reduce stimulus measures before implementing plug-ins.
Become completely competitive in vehicles-
Many states have already started taxing electric vehicles.
Battery manufacturers may face material shortages or production problems that hinder their ability to cut costs.
In addition, unforeseen technical failures such as large-area fires of batteries may hinder progress.
"But we are trying to be fairly conservative in terms of battery price estimates, and we have not seen the obstacles that electric vehicles will soon become cost-competitive," mckerdouer said . ".
Potential setbacksOther experts warn that the drop in battery costs is not the only factor in determining whether electric vehicles are popular.
Sam o'ry, executive director of the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute, noted, "people don't buy cars based solely on price tags.
"Consumers may be wary of vehicles with limited range that can take hours to charge.
Although the researchers have proved the battery
For many people's daily commuting habits, electric cars have enough mileage, and it is difficult to predict the consumption psychology.
For example, the report does not expect the widespread popularity of electric vehicles in pickup trucks --truck market.
Charging infrastructure is another potential barrier.
Although the city began building thousands of public charging stations
Tesla is trying to reduce the amount of time it takes to power its depleted batteries
Charging an electric car still takes longer than refuel a traditional car.
Many car owners charge cars overnight in their garages, but it is much more difficult for urban residents who park their cars on the street.
So the Bloomberg report warned that,
In terms of transportation, access to densely populated urban areas may be difficult and infrastructure bottlenecks may slow the growth of electric vehicles after 2040.
Another potential obstacle could be the car manufacturers themselves.
Plug is being introduced by most manufacturers.
In the United States, in order to comply with stricter fuel requirements,
Economic standards, they don't always push them aggressively, said Chelsea Sexton, a consultant in the automotive industry who worked on the GM electric vehicle project in the 1990 s.
Car dealers are also reluctant to show and sell electric cars because electric cars usually require less maintenance and are less profitable for their services.
The survey found that salespeople were often unprepared to sell cars.
"We 've seen a lot of announcements about electric vehicles, but if automakers are just making these cars for compliance and are not enthusiastic about actually marketing these cars, it's not
The economy could help overcome these obstacles, said mckerviller.
He noted Norway's heavy tax on oil
The generous subsidies for electric cars and electric cars have created price parity between the two.
In this way, Plug and Play
In Norway, sales of hybrid and all-electric vehicles accounted for 37% of new sales, up from 6% in 2013.
If Bloomberg's forecast is correct, it could have a profound impact on the oil market.
The report predicts that a significant increase in electric vehicles will result in the replacement of 8 million barrels of transport fuel per day. (
The world consumes about 98 million barrels of oil a day. )
Some oil companies are struggling to cope with the prospect that global demand will eventually peak, and billions of dollars in investment are at stake in timing.
The large-scale application of electric vehicles will also become a key strategy to deal with climate change.
If the power of the vehicle is getting lower,
Carbon electricity is not coal.
The International Energy Agency estimates that electric vehicles will account for at least 40% of passenger vehicle sales by 2040, so that the world has the opportunity to meet the climate targets outlined in the Paris agreement, keep the total amount of global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
However, Bloomberg's report also shows that more countries are needed to reduce traffic emissions.
Even with the rapid development of electric vehicles, there will still be more traditional oil products in the world.
In 2040, there were more electric passenger cars on the road than today, and it would take many years to retire from the existing fleet.
And other modes of transportation, such as heavy
Without great advances in battery technology, duty trucks and aviation will still be difficult to power on.
This means it's too early to write an obituary for the internal combustion engine.