battery storage systems Tesla Pivots To Oblivion

Don't interrupt when numbers speak. 1. Stock2. Finance3. Market4. Sales5.
The way it works for tittstesla-pretend it before you do it. 1.
After five years of high volatility, Tesla's share price returned to $233.
98, its March 17, 2014 value.
This is an investment in a long-term downturn.
Term holders, except for early investors who have already sold at or near local peaks for profit.
Over the same period, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose nearly 60% and 100% respectively.
Speech from first
Hand experience, rewarding those who enter and exit Securities frequently, both in the long term and in the short term.
(Source: Nasdaq) large amount of capital raised and large number of shares-
Pay to employees, directors and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been significantly diluted for the long term
Long-term shareholders.
The latest capital raising will triple the number of shareholders.
5 million shares as 8-K filing shows.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing documents) the recently submitted Form 13F filing documents may indicate that there is not much change in institutional ownership.
For a bigger exit like T.
Rowe Price or Fidelity Investments, new buyers or existing owners have increased their stake in q1.
(Source: Nasdaq) institutional investors and Tesla CEOs-who hold 33,824,680 shares according to the latest form 4 submitted in early November-have controlled the shares since the IPO.
At present, there are more than 200 MFs and ETFs worldwide, and the percentage allocation of TSLA makes sense. many people share "ecology", "Green", "growth" and focus on "technology" or "innovation ".
Retail or pension investors seeking TSLA exposure may want to look into the prospects of the following: the top seven MFs: 13.
71% Baron Partners retail fund (MUTF: BPTRX) 11.
20% Baron focus on growth retail fund (MUTF: BFGFX) 9.
15% Fidelity Select auto portfolio fund (MUTF: FSAVX) 8.
56% Japan Airlines Ark subversive Innovation Fund (LU1861556378: USD) 6.
74% Green effects
Wertefonds (IE0005895655: EUR) 5.
78% Bailey Gifford positive change (MUTF: BPESX) 5.
53% Baillie GIF Ford Top 7 etf: 10 global long-term growth Eq 1 fund (MUTF: BGLNX.
63% ARK Industrial Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKQ) 10.
54% Ark Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK) 8. 92% ARK Web x.
0 ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKW) 7.
72% Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: GEX) 6.
23% First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy (NYSEARCA: QCLN) 4.
68% global X lithium technology ETF (NYSEARCA: Nasdaq) 4.
The exit of the 08% Alpine clean energy ETF (NYSEARCA: ACES) from the large TSLA position is becoming increasingly difficult as the sale of large blocks could trigger further sales orders, this may prompt the stock price to fall rapidly in a very short period of time-a situation that brings real gains to investors.
Especially those who buy at or near local highs may have to reassure themselves that the company has recently switched to level 5 autonomous taxi service operations and may not want to sell at the current level, but because the future of the company is rather uncertain, it may not increase a lot of shares.
72 footer Note (1) Agency statement filed on April DEF 14A shows that on December 31, 2018, Tesla CEO pledged 13,394,056 shares to the bank as credit collateral, to fund his lifestyle and career-$4
It was 5 billion, $3.
2 billion when writing.
Elon Musk can withdraw 33,824,680 shares in the trust and pledge 39 shares.
He holds 6% of the shares, compared to 15.
Tesla's 8% IPO.
(Source: Nasdaq) 2.
Although the company went public in June 2010, it was still seen as a growth story by many institutional investors who focused primarily on strong growth in unit sales and revenue.
At the 2018 earnings call in the second quarter, Tesla CEO has provided guidance for continued profitability since the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter of January 2019, 2018 earnings conference call, Tesla CEO assured investors that 2019 in the first quarter will still be profitable.
After the Model 3 mass production increased significantly, the unit sales and revenue of 2018 in the third quarter increased strongly, with only a slight increase in the next quarter.
Q1 2019 is then far from what was expected, unlike what was said three months ago.
According to the income breakdown of 2018, there are 92.
8% car-related revenue, Tesla is neither a technology company nor an energy company, but a car OEM.
Therefore, it should be analyzed and evaluated.
(Source: Tesla)
Until the 2017 quarter, Tesla was able to show positive current capital-current assets that exceeded current liabilities for day-to-day capital --to-
Daily operations-but this has changed at the same time as Model 3 ramp --up.
Tesla has asked its suppliers to use negative working capital as a form of short selling. term financing.
Like companies in the telecom or retail industry, Tesla quickly collects cash from customers while slowly paying bills from suppliers.
The company effectively borrows money from suppliers.
The question is whether Tesla's suppliers will continue to support in an increasingly tense macroeconomic environment as ASP and unit sales show signs of further deterioration.
In 2018, the company's former chief financial officer explained what the future would bring: "With the continuation of the Model 3 ramp, the need for negative working capital, this basically creates extra cash for us that will be repeatable.
He kept his promise.
(Source: Tesla)
Car sales and leasing companies obviously still cannot improve their efficiency and cost structure in a meaningful and more important way.
The ASP in the entire model portfolio is declining, but COGS are not falling faster as OEM expects, and OEM follows and improves best practices in the contemporary industry.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing) in the past six quarters, before 2018 in the third quarter, Tesla provided an average of $2,491 per car sold for warranty.
Despite many quality problems plaguing Model 3, this figure was reduced to only $1,786 in the first quarter of 2019.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company's car sales were three times that of the first quarter of last year, but the warranty cost per car fell by $500.
The warranty terms of the car manufacturer (such as the warranty cost incurred) are usually part of the gear, so it directly affects the gross profit margin of the car.
Reducing the warranty terms increases the cost of the warranty, and many observers, including me, speculate that Tesla has incorporated the warranty cost component into SG & A or unstable deficit services and other sections, as discussed below, in order to further expand car gross margin.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing) since 2018 in the second quarter, the value of service parts added in finished goods inventory has decreased by more than half, although the number of cars sold has doubled since then.
Customer service has deteriorated further from a low level: "What happened with Tesla service?
@ Tesla @ elonmusk my P90D AC stopped working today and Tesla no longer has any supporters to talk to over the weekend.
Quality and support make me a loyal customer
If I don't get support when I need it, I don't need it anymore.
The cost reduction is wrong. 6:53 pm -12 May 2019.
"Considering that the paint will deteriorate within one year of use, it will deteriorate during the warranty period, and the production of service parts is insufficient, which is not a good sign for the future.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC) although in Q3 and Q4 2018, sales of Tesla have more than doubled, with a large investment in model monthly mass production, sales and decline.
Considering the delivery of two or three times as many cars as before and the administration and logistics involved in preparing to deliver 2019 cars in Europe and China in the first quarter, it seems strange, especially when considering SG & A as A percentage of revenue.
The SG & A map of each vehicle sold shows the impact of layoffs, mainly in the traditional business of SolarCity, and also the improvement of efficiency.
However, despite the decline in unit sales-30.
5%, SG & A's price for each car sold rose 52% again from $7,359 to $11,173.
As you can imagine, Tesla needs to take into account the maintenance of the new car.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing) according to the company's highly suspicious mission statement, the energy generation and storage sector of the energy generation and storageTesla once foreshadowed the company's huge growth opportunities, but still performed
Its gross profit margin is only 2.
4% in the 2019 quarter, significantly lower than in the previous quarters.
Revenue in this business unit has declined since 2017 in the fourth quarter20. 8%.
This is Tesla's acquisition of SolarCity in November 2016, and the CEO sold it to shareholders as "without thinking". Tesla's share price has more than doubled from $181. 47 to its all-
A record high of $383.
45, as shown in the MW installation chart, although the business itself is still not performing well.
Driven by the government's environmental ambitions
Andrew Cuomo, New York, invested $750 in a million tax from a factory that will be in Panasonic (OTCPK: PCRFY) based on the production of photovoltaic solar energy own and Silevo called the Revolution "TRIEX"
Later, the technology of both companies was not compatible.
Eventually, Tesla put SolarCity's Silevo plan into practice, and Panasonic sold most of its photovoltaic solar cell products to any paying user.
Tesla plans to offer 1,460 jobs by April 2020, which means it will have to double the number of jobs in April 2019, but Tesla's photovoltaic solar business continues to decline.
In April, Tesla abandoned its previous sales channel for photovoltaic solar panels and switched
Only the sales method, trying to unload the roof measurement and evaluation of electrical equipment to potential customers to reduce SG &
More importantly, in order to further resume sales and create much-needed cash, the company decided to reduce the price of its photovoltaic solar panels and related equipment by 16%, below the national average.
What Will Tesla's ambition in PV and its commitment to create jobs?
After years of release, the company's photovoltaic solar panels, if possible, are still far from reaching the bottom line, as Morgan Chase's Ryan Brinkman pointed out in April.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing) the department's financial indicators show that Tesla's home and grid battery storage business is still a lackluster niche effort, even after selling the world's largest grid battery storage system at that time to the French company Neoen in 2018 for its Australian wind farm.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison compared the project to having the world's largest banana or prawn, which he says does not solve Australia's energy problems, matt Howell, CEO of Tomago Aluminium, Australia, notes that Hornsdale battery storage can only power an aluminum smelter for about 8 minutes.
Tensions between Tesla and Panasonic are intensifying.
After Panasonic showed great generosity in the first half of 2018, allowing Tesla to achieve an unexpected Gross profit margin miracle in the third quarter of 2019, it stopped investing in the unfinished Nevada battery and packaging plant.
On May 1, 2019, the Nikkei Asia Review published a criticism of Panasonic's diplomatic packaging --
Tesla's relationship has become so tense recently.
Although the contract with Panasonic requires the company to bring a certain number of batteries and deploy remaining batteries for its energy storage products that generate sales, Tesla should perhaps consider stripping its energy generation and storage business, because it does not contribute to the bottom line while transferring much needed financial and human resources elsewhere.
Services and others, especially services and other business units, including old/old services, maintenance, repair and salesLeasing and trade
The generator has become a considerable loss in the car.
Gross profit margin fell-39. 1% in Q1 2019.
Analysts like sunford Bernstein's Tony saconagi suspect that in order to raise the gross profit margin of the car, an indicator of concern for many institutional investors, Tesla may keep it rising in this part, the cost of the car gear should be booked.
38 pages on the last 10 pages
Q: Tesla also recognizes the ASP of its trade-
Car prices are falling due to discounts on new car purchases.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC) capital raising ISince 2013, Tesla has burned $0. 226 billion for initial public offering and $2010 in months.
Mainly in the spring, 1 billion of the money was raised by selling shares and bonds.
In the past nine years, the company has neither created shareholder value nor displayed annual profits, so that investors can finally obtain financial benefits in the form of dividends.
In order to achieve monetary gains, investors have to trade shares in long or short positions.
Tesla's CEO seems inclined to claim no need to raise money.
In February 2012, he told analysts that the company did not need to raise funds.
On October 2016, he again told analysts that the company did not have to raise funds.
On April 2018, he again told analysts that the company did not need to raise funds.
The opposite is true.
The company has seen the liquidity crisis approaching many times.
Ashley Vance's biography of Tesla's CEO revealed that Tesla had approached Google in early 2013 as it was about to stop fulfilling its financial obligations.
Tesla CEO admitted in a Recode decoding Q & A in early November 2018 that the company was facing bankruptcy in the months leading up to September. Later re-
In an interview with Axios Media Inc.
Many observers are right to infer a similar terminal dilemma from the company's financial disclosure.
The article I published in early September 2018 seeking Tesla is clearly correct in its assumptions.
Medium term capital raising
Tesla must have run out of money again in March 2019.
The company ended its first quarter of 2019 at $2.
2 billion yuan in cash, including 0. 768 billion yuan in non-cash
The escrow customer deposit has been used up.
Tesla delivered the bulk of its quarterly sales-about 20,000 cars-towards the end, spurred by an internal "go-all" email, such as a 2016 email in the third quarter.
ASP for the entire model portfolio is $81,333, which means $1.
A 6 billion cash inflow later in the quarter indicates an unstable financial situation and a cash crisis.
It is not surprising that some analysts and observers are convinced that another financing is not only necessary but imminent.
(Source: Tesla)
The company did raise $2 in May 3, 2019.
7 billion of the capital to maintain its solvency and to be able to repay SolarCity's $0. 566 billion in advanced convertible bonds due in November 1, 2019, making it the company's largest capital raising to date.
In a conference call with the underwriters, the investor was briefed on the reasons for the transaction, the company re-positioned itself as a taxi service operator, and will manage Class 5 self-driving vehicles from 2020, to see its future profit potential.
Rental returns and customers' cars will appreciate in three years, worth up to $250,000.
In turning to this statement, Tesla hopes to capture the excitement of the ipo of Lyft (Nasdaq: LYFT) and Uber (NYSE: Uber, to prove that its current and future valuation is reasonable, the CEO of the company is expected to contribute $500 billion.
The conditions for raising funds are not as favorable as they were first seen.
The company sold $847.
Stock $6 million and $1.
84 billion of the bonds, the real cost of the latter is 6. 5% -8. 5%.
Tesla had to enter an additional ticket hedge transaction
Called for $475.
$8 million was obtained from the underwriters for the convertible senior notes portion of the transaction, while $174 was obtained.
4 million sale of additional warrants.
Tesla lost $644.
7 million cash for the first quarter-and unit sales for the second quarter don't look good at writing mid May-effective earnings of $2.
Given its huge capital expenditure demand and the $38 billion of SolarCity bonds due in November 1, 2019 may not exceed the 0. 566 billion quarter.
Tesla also holds a $0. 165 billion SolarCity term loan that will initially expire on January 2019 and later be postponed until April, now extended to June as Q1 2019-
Q is displayed in the footnote.
Interestingly, an extra $1.
Before Tesla 84 billion 5, 2025 unsecured debt expired.
3% of junk bonds, the latter's yield rose sharply to 8.
478% when writing.
(Source: Bond Supermart) Capital expenditure stesla has fallen to its level before the 2016 quarter.
At Q1 2019, the company spent only $279.
9 million-the rest of the total expenditure on the purchase of photovoltaic solar systems amounted to $0. 305 billion.
35 pages of Q1 2019 10-
Q: Tesla's capital expenditure is as high as $2.
This year's 5 billion "continues to develop our main projects, including the Gigabit plant Shanghai, Y and Tesla half, and further expand our Supercharger and vehicle service and repair network.
"The Y-car is expected to be available at the end of 2020.
On January 29, Caixin reported that China Construction Bank Co. , Ltd.
Agricultural Bank of China Limited
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. , Ltd.
Provide a loan of $0. 521 billion due in March 2020 and have the option to borrow another $0. 7 billion. Exhibit 10.
69 to Q1 2019 10-
Q shows the details of the loan agreement.
The total amount of credit not only provided funds for Pudong's financing, but also clearly provided funds-see page 10 3. 1.
2-allows Tesla to order production equipment, raw materials, etc.
Starting from 2020 in the first quarter, mass production of Model 3 began in China.
Compared to the capital needed to produce a brand new car, China's clone Model 3 production will consume less capital. With $1.
4 billion cash plus $2 after customer deposit.
4 billion of the capital that has just been raised and the generous Chinese financing, even considering that cash consumption in the second quarter of 2019 or beyond may continue, the company seems to be able to bear the required capital expenditures.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing) regulatory credit I the amount of regulatory credit that Tesla can sell has increased since 2017 in the second quarter. In Q3 2018, 60.
8% of net profit comes from regulated credit sales, 67.
9% in Q4 2018, the profitability of throwing a very different light is achieved in both aspects.
In Q1 2019, a confusing 6.
1% of car sales revenue comes from regulatory credit.
(Source: Tesla)
In several quarters of the SEC, Tesla no longer announced its monthly income-
K shares, but only in 10-Qs.
For several years, the regulatory credit income is 10-
The SEC filing documents and investors were forced to piece together the total amount of regulatory credit sales disclosed multiple times.
The company created $1.
92 billion manage credit revenue of nearly 100% net profit, equal to $5,015 for 382,509, is reported to be sold in the United States. S. since IPO.
(Source: Tesla)
Documents submitted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) show that Tesla still has to rely on the actions of the US government in the past and now. S.
Being able to generate enough regulatory credit in other sales areas of Europe and China, and relying on stricter government regulations because it is a subsidy, incentives and benefits for expensive electric car buyers who drive electric cars artificially
It has created a global market for electric vehicles, particularly for Tesla.
No matter where the government reduces or eliminates market interference, in the typical pre-
Reduce purchases
This has been demonstrated in the Netherlands, Denmark, Hong Kong and small sales areas.
After Germany, Canada and other countries have set a qualification ceiling on the sale price of electric vehicles to control the improper distribution of public funds, China also intends to reduce national and regional subsidies from 2020.
(Source: Tesla Motor Europe club, national vehicle registration) it must be noted that regulated credit sales have also raised Tesla's gross profit margin for cars, which is different from the gross profit margin of other automakers.
Unlike its peers, Tesla does not include research and development in terms of car revenue costs, nor does it include the operation of its own dealers.
The gross margin indicator is also the driving force for CEO stock option awards.
So far, analysts have not questioned Tesla's gross profit margin calculation problem, so it has seriously distorted the comparison of industry peers in conference calls and research reports.
The gross profit margin for the first quarter was 2019.
6% instead of 20
2%, the difference between the materials is about 25%.
It is clear that, in addition to the frequent selling of stocks and bonds, Tesla is heavily dependent on the recurring and growing monetary gains brought about by various government actions.
It can be said that Tesla is the only government car company-the only 100% car manufacturers that rely on political decision-making.
On February 25, the European Commission issued a statement of intent between Fiat Chrysler (NYSE: FCAU) that Tesla would centralize the cars they sell in Europe, achieving a 2020 EU emissions target through average fleet emissions, another politically contributed Source of 100% net emissions
Profits from Tesla.
The statement of intent was initially valid for 2019.
Several other OEMs intend to form two additional pools between them.
On April 7, 2019, the Financial Times reported the existence of the Tesla pool and pointed out that
Specifically: "Fiat Chrysler has agreed to pay hundreds of millions of euros to Tesla.
According to the Financial Times on April 3, 2019, FCA will pay Tesla 1 euro.
£ 8 billion ($2 billion ).
This is not the case, as can be seen from the company's quarterly documents, annual reports and management statements.
I. Tesla's disclosure: 10-
K 2018 page 83: "As of December 31, 2018 and 2017, we do not have deferred revenue related to the sale of auto regulatory credit.
"This shows that, as in all previous quarters or years, there is no Deferred regulatory credit revenue from FCA or other OEMs. 10-
Page 10, 2019, in the first quarter: "deferred revenue related to auto-regulated credit sales is $140. 0 million (…).
We expect to confirm Deferred revenue as of March 31, 2019 in the next two to three years.
"This rather limited cash inflow from long-term withdrawals may be attributed to the FCA pool transactions in the EU;
But it can also be attributed to the purchase of regulatory credit from FCA or other OEMs from the company in the United States. S.
Earnings call record April 24: when asked about FCA transactions at Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois, Tesla CEO replied, "I think this is a confidential transaction with FCA, so we agree that FCA does not comment publicly, so we must abide by it.
II. disclosure of FCA: 20-F (“10-
K ") 2018 259th page:" (months) of purchasing obligations including (. . . . . . ) And (III) commit to purchase intangible assets related to regulated emission credits totaling approximately € 75 million.
"This 2019 of the purchase obligation may already be related to Tesla's joint venture in the EU, but it may also be attributed to the purchase of regulatory credit from Tesla or other OEMs in the United States. S.
It is instructive to see that FCA lists existing and pending regulatory authorizations related to emissions in all sales areas and how they affect the future passenger and commercial vehicle markets, while Tesla has neither educated shareholders about the matter nor discussed its fundamental reliance on the matter. 6-K (“10-
Q ") q p. 2019th of January:" The number of 2018 € 0. 17 billion included in the three months ended March 31, 2019 of cost benefit is 82 million, representing the accumulation of regulatory fees and the use of regulatory credit, mainly in North America, during the 2019 period, also in EMEA.
Then, on page 54, the company said, "in the three months ended March 31, 2019, FCA entered multipleyear non-
Cancelable agreements for the purchase of regulated emission credits in various jurisdictions, with a total commitment of 1 euro. 8 billion.
The credit purchased is expected to be used for the compliance year as of 2023.
May 3 Earnings Call Record: Richard Palmer CFO "We did enter into various agreements this quarter to ensure we were able to access regulatory credit to complement our vehicle launch strategy, to meet future emissions compliance for EMEA and NAFTA.
So all these promises
According to these contracts, it is about 1 euro.
8 billion, this will be spent in the next three years (. . . . . . ) Our compliance cost target for EMEA this year is-
We expect to reach around 0. 12 billion euros next year, which we expect to increase. ”3.
The global passenger car market is undergoing a fundamental shift.
Auto market analyst JATO believes that car sales in Europe and China fell in 2018, while car sales in North America stagnated.
Despite high consumer confidence, as the aging population of the three global sales regions above primarily seeks alternative purchases, sales of 2019 are expected to decline slightly.
Still, China's auto market is still in its last month of a sharp decline.
For a long time, basic sales growth in South America, Asia Pacific and India has continued, despite the short term
As Africa slowly appears on the horizon as a meaningful sales area.
Consumers in these regions are rising from poverty and earning meager wealth at tens of millions of dollars a year.
Global relevance of Europe and North America as the core drivers of global consumption continues to decline, wage growth for most consumers is minimal, and employment is becoming increasingly unstable.
At the same time as the latter paradigm shift, consumer demand is further divided.
Strong demand for CUVs, SUVs and pick in Europe, China and North America
In South America, Asia Pacific and India, demand for small, strong passenger cars continues to rise. in addition to the wealthy urban consumer groups, they have shown an increasing tendency to the preferred models in the northern hemisphere.
So far, Tesla has neither met the needs of the global growth segment nor offered real estate, convertible cars, Allegro or coupe.
The global electric vehicle market is the global market for electric vehicles, which means that the growth rates of electric vehicles, PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs continue to be lower than many optimistic analysts have expected in recent years.
Many strong analysts are sure that the revolutionary disruption to personal traffic has not happened again, and electric vehicles have only seen it twice.
9% of global passenger car sales in 2018.
Investors who focus on the quality and quantity development of the global electric vehicle market should inform themselves through electric vehicle sales and ICCT rather than through the company's affiliate blogs and fan sites.
The growth in electric vehicle sales only occurs in sales areas where strict government regulation is either a financial temptation or for two main reasons-civil environmental issues in California, Florida, on the one hand, Norway or the Netherlands, on the other hand, China's particle emission reduction and future global auto industry-led plans.
In any case, the global electric vehicle market is still artificial, controlled by government rather than market forces.
A side effect of the UN
The concerted government intervention is that it often promotes, possibly inadvertently, expensive, oversized, overweight, and therefore highly unsustainable BEVs, make them particularly attractive to wealthy families who often buy electric cars as second-or even third-class vehicles-as a material feeling --
A good icon to show their attention to the environment.
However, to improve the world by super-overweight BEVs, there is nothing but to get to the beach and drain the ocean with a teaspoon.
The main obstacles to the adoption of electric vehicles, especially in the sales areas where subsidies, incentives and benefits are low or not, are high prices and insurance premiums, followed by scope, especially in the winter months, there is a general lack of urban and roadside charging infrastructure.
The existing high net worth population in the above-mentioned global growth area is too small to achieve a rapid and substantial rotation of ICEVs.
For most consumers in these regions, used cars and low
The reasonably priced ICEVs will still be the main choice model, and cars are the most expensive free choice for most families.
Global Fleet rotation, more than 1.
The 3 billion ICEVs currently in use will take decades.
The tipping point in imagination is still unrealistic.
(Source: OICA, EV-Volume BNEF) 4.
With the increase of Model 3 production, sales finally grew strongly, meeting the depression of many years
Given that FIT credit halved demand by the deadline, Tesla's global sales were almost stagnant and sales grew just eight times.
3% from Q3 to Q4 2018, into a big-30.
5% in Q1 2019, seriously destroying the company's growth story.
At the end of the 2019 quarter, the increase between Tesla's production and sales increased to 34,106 units.
As of the end of the quarter, 10,600 vehicles were in transit, leaving 23,506 "missing" vehicles missing since 2013.
ASP for the entire model portfolio is $81,333, which represents $1.
Unrealized income of 9 billion
So far, the company has not clarified the whereabouts of these missing vehicles, which means how many vehicles the company has retained as lenders or service vehicles and how many have been scrapped.
(Source: Tesla)
On January 30, 2019, Tesla CEO said in a letter of 2018 shareholders in the fourth quarter that the company expects to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 cars in 2019.
A few hours later, Tesla CEO said in the fourth quarter 2018 earnings call that the company will deliver 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3 in 2019.
On February 19, Tesla's CEO said on Twitter that Tesla will produce about 500,000 cars in 2019, and then said on Twitter that Tesla will produce 500,000 cars --
Interest rates at the end of 2019.
On February 28, Tesla CEO said in a telephone interview with reporters that the company will produce 420,000 to 600,000 cars in 2019.
On April 3, 2019, Tesla CEO said in a letter of 2019 shareholders in the first quarter that the company expects to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 cars in 2019, as described in early January.
Unstable management guidance on the production and sales of core products will certainly not help to restore investor confidence.
The problem is how current and future models are sold in a mix with much lower S and X models-although both models are quickly updated with more efficient drive trains and faster charging speeds -- low-
Terminal Model 3 sales will reduce the sales revenue and gross profit margin of the car.
I expect unit sales to remain sluggish in the second quarter, with cash flow problems recurring in the fourth quarter of this year.
Europe's Model S and xdis are proof of seasonality, and Model S saw a sharp drop in sales of 2019 in the first quarter58. 3% YoY (-
59% to Q1 2017), while sales of Model X Q1 2019 also dropped significantly33. 3% YoY (-45. 2% to Q1 2017).
Sales began to be affected by the arrival of Model 3 and the unfavorable tax changes for electric vehicles in the Netherlands, one of Tesla's previous three core sales areas in Europe, and now only two countries, Norway and the United Kingdom.
Price discount reported by the company on 2019 10-38 pages and 40 pages in the first quarter
EV tax changes for Q and German-favored companies failed to rekindle European sales.
Now, and in the future, competitor products have eaten into the sale of Tesla's aging high-tech
ASP model, half of April may not have any improvement.
Dagens n ringsliv in Norway reported that within a year, Tesla dropped from fourth to 51 in terms of customer satisfaction due to continued low quality and lack of adequate customer service.
Rental buyers are the group of customers Tesla can unload a lot of inventory when needed, they are not only in China, but also in Europe have encountered huge problems. EC-
Rent in the Netherlands had to give up their Tesla rental fleet, "because of the increasing technical flaws, Tesla did not deliver parts quickly and we had to stop half of our rental fleet from mid TeslasDecember.
As this practice is no longer in place and it seems impossible to find a solution, our activities have now ceased.
"The UMEI taxi in northern Sweden went bankrupt due to the lack and cost of Tesla services.
(Source: Tesla Motor European club, national vehicle registration) (source: Tesla Motor European club, national vehicle registration)
With the growth of demand, the sales of Model 3 rose to the end of the 2019 quarter, when RWD long-
The Range version was first launched in January.
Since the beginning of April, customers can also order lower
Pricing standard range plus a variation of the 386 km range, starting at 45,480 euros next to AWD long-
The range version starts at 55,780 euros and 496 km ranges-in other words, 10,300 euros for a 110 km "larger tank.
"From the inventory levels in Norway and elsewhere, it is certain that the sales volume in April was caused by a car overflow that has been shipped but has not yet been delivered.
Also because of the lack of RHD models, the UK is the second Tesla
In Europe's largest sales area, sales in April were lower than in February.
Shipping activities to Europe in April have been low, and it is likely that so far Tesla will be able to ship as much equipment as possible for delivery in the second quarter, which is still uncertain.
With AWD for a long time
As the sales cycle is gradually shortened, the standard series plus may pass the torch to the third quarter, but ASP and profit margins will be affected.
Model 3 saves operating costs, one of Tesla's most prominent sales arguments in addition to direct sales
For many Europeans, line acceleration has not been achieved: the Model 3 SR in the 415 km range starts at 45,480 euros, 13,000 euros higher than Skoda Octavia Premium 2.
0 TDI with more options, better interior and higher fit and finish.
Model 3 uses 20kWh for every 100 km vehicles on urban and rural roads in mild weather, which means, in Germany, the domestic electricity bill per kWh is 0,29 euros-Tesla's own charger costs more per kWh-and the cost per $100 km is 5 euros.
8, while Skoda uses 5.
3 liters per 100 km diesel under the same conditions.
Cost 1 euro.
24 diesel per liter, the cost per 100 km is 6 euros. 6.
Average 15,000 km kilometers per year, operating cost difference is only 120 euros per year, in the cold and winter weather season, through the battery pre-
Heating and battery discharge, as well as higher cost of insurance and repair.
After using it in 108, Tesla will be the same as Skoda in terms of fuel costs.
(Source: Tesla Motor European club, national vehicle registration)S.
Model S and xinvalidation have also made common but false statements about seasonality in the United States. S.
Sales of 2019 units fell in the first quarter-31. 6% YoY (-40.
6% to Q1 2017), while sales of Model X Q1 2019 have declined-12. 5% YoY (-10. 5% to Q1 2017).
The arrival of Model 3 and 50% FIT affects sales
Credit decreased from January 2019 and further decreased from July 2019 to $1,850.
The company's sharp discount on the two models mentioned on 18,000 10 pages 38 and 40 pages in the first quarter was as high as $2019
Q and Tesla's $2,000 compensatory price cut from January 2019 has apparently not reignited the United States. S. sales, too.
The arrival of Model 3 and some competitor products may begin to erode the sales of Tesla's aging high-end products.
No improvements were shown in the ASP model and in April.
Due to problems with body hardware, paint and decoration, the consumer report file shows Model X under 10 most unreliable cars
Car Electronics, noise and leaks.
Some observers speculated that several accidents that NTSB was reviewing were caused by Tesla's "self-driving" secondary driver assistance and spontaneous battery fires in stationary cars, don't instill too much confidence in the company's ability to improve car safety and quality.
(Source: Sales of electric vehicles ). S.
Two years of depression
As demand grows, Model 3 sales are slowly growing after RWD long's initial launch
The range version was in July 2017.
As early as October 2018, the version stopped and reappeared as a mid-term version
Range version, also discontinued in March 2019, Long
The range version is available again, but only by phone or in-
Store reservation.
Performance of AWD and AWD starting July 2018
Starting at $49,500 and $59,500, the range version began to sell, with strong sales growth by the end of this year.
At the beginning of February 2019, the $35,000 RWD Standard series began selling so that the company could claim that it finally achieved mass service deliverymarket Model 3.
However, the version is only available for six weeks and only sold by phone or in-house thereafter
Store reservation. This low-
The final version soon became the RWD Standard series plus.
On March 11, Tesla's CEO, as usual, promoted sales by announcing the upcoming price increase of 3%, however, as the TMC Forum shows, high discounts continue.
Since April 12, 2019, Tesla has also offered Model 3 a rental option with a down payment of $3,000 and no right to buy a car at the end of the lease, because the car is reserved for the company's level 5 independent taxi service operation.
Model 3 sales soared last quarter due to fit
Reduced credit.
Then, despite the discount and shutdown of Models S and X at 75 KW hours, 2019 of sales fell sharply in the first quarter.
Sales did not pick up in April and may also remain at a lower level before the next fit
Reduced credit and $399 monthly rental services from July 2019, which could increase sales in June and bring the volume into the third quarter.
At the time of writing this report, Tesla once again raised the price of the RWD remote at $1,400, the price of all other models at $400, and raised the price of the FSD to $6,000.
Tesla's volatile, casual model and pricing policies suggest that there is no suitable strategy.
At the same time, Tesla began to use the Canadian subsidy regulations to provide 93 miles of limited naked
The standard range of Bones Model 3 RWD falls below the threshold of $45,000 (Canada) per dollar.
In doing so, the $53,700 RWD standard range plus is now eligible for a $5,000 subsidy because it is considered a "level of reduction" for the underlying model ". Like in the U. S. , the 93-
Mileage version can only be ordered by phone or by in-
However, the regular mode can be in-line.
This interpretation of regulatory loopholes is in line with Tesla's use of the California ZEV credit regulations, providing a simple solution through Model S's theoretical battery switching station function and the use of German subsidy regulations
The Bones Model S is below the subsidy threshold and then the customer has to order the previously standard decoration as an additional item to raise it to a higher ASPs.
(Source: EV deevs, EV Sales) due to problems with body hardware and trim, the Consumer Report removed Model 3 from the list of recommended cars on February 2019.
The paint of the new Nordic Model 3 cars is falling off, which may have been tested only on the sunny California highway.
Tariff tensions between Chinese models S, X and 3 Trade and the United StatesS.
Since July 2018, China has had a negative impact on Model S and X sales.
China has imposed a 40% tariff on US imports. S.
The car was later reduced to 15% until the problem was resolved in April or May 2019.
At the time of writing, trade and tariff negotiations were deadlocked in confrontation and huge tariffs were imposed on a wide range of Chinese goods.
The dispute could turn into a container Cold War, seriously damaging the prospect of Tesla's efforts in product sales in China and the Pudong Model 3 plant.
In response to China's retaliatory measures, Tesla raised the prices of Model S and X by about 20%, but lowered the price by 12-again-
At the end of November 2018, 26%.
The company also announced that the Model 3 will be sold from more than $77,928, but will cut prices again to $72,000 by the end of December 2018.
From February 2019, Tesla has also provided free enhanced self-driving capabilities for all Model 3 orders to increase sales.
Although S-and X-type sales have not yet resumed, after China customs resolved the issue of import declaration, the company did successfully ship the 3-type in the second half of the first quarter of 2019.
So far, transportation to China has been very low on April and 5, and it is uncertain whether Tesla can ship more equipment to the second quarter of delivery in time.
(Source: Tesla)
SEC filing documents) partly due to the company's amateur attitude towards automation and production, the quality of cars shipped to China remains as problematic as elsewhere.
Chinese customers are increasingly dissatisfied with Tesla's defects and its subsidiaries.
Excellent service.
This year, three Model S have been caught fire automatically, two in the Shanghai charger and the Shanghai underground parking lot, and the other in the parking lot of the Hong Kong shopping mall.
A Chengdu rental and taxi company, which operates 278 S and X, was very upset that it posted large billboard ads in Times Square, New York, asking for proper service and compensation for losses, many cars have not been repaired for more than a year.
Although the design, layout and manufacturing capabilities of integrated circuits in the United States have been decades old,
With the long-term involvement of Apple's Jim Keller and AMD integrated circuit design, Tesla insists that in order to obtain the "brain" that plays an important role in the fifth-level self-driving effort ", it must turn to Chinese experts to replace Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) as a supplier.
The company said: "for products that are critical to consumers and essential to the nature of Tesla, we turn to industry experts who can achieve this quality and complexity in addition to deadlines, this is not possible outside China. May 3, United StatesS.
Trade officials have rejected Tesla's request to waive President Trump's 25% tariff on Chinese exports to the United States. S.
Chinese about it
The "brain" was made for Model 3 ".
Tesla's success plan in China now depends on the high quality mass production of the Pudong plant.
More importantly, it depends on how and when the United StatesS. -
China's tariffs and trade disputes can be settled amicably. Global near-
Tesla will cut its long-term expectations by 2019
360,000 sales end guidance, the company must sell 99,000 cars in each of the remaining three quarters.
Half or more of April, based on the transit and transportation activities of the car, I estimate Q2 sales (sales drivers) as follows: 22,000 months (wide range of European standards, more transport volume );
30,000 North America type 3 (standard scope plus, lease );
12,000 Model 3 China (larger shipments) and 16,000 Model S and X global (higher range, discount) with total sales of 80,000 under the ever-shrinking ASPs and profit margin5.
Compared with the traditional ado and glory around Tesla product launches, the grand opening of the factory and the upcoming announcement, the "Y model unveiling" and the "autonomy day" are almost secret, analysts and investors are very upset that they expect a CEO to be on the stage with a spectacular new share offering.
When Tesla launched the Y prototype in March 14, its attitude towards investors must have been one of the most distressing product launches in car history recently.
Model Y is disguised as Model 3, an exercise that extends the general brand, expanding the Z-
Axis, share 75% of the latter zero.
Presented in mid
The size of the SUV makes seven passengers can't believe the onlookers. The roof is mostly CUV. it is speculated that the RWD Standard series will be available at the end of 2020, starting at $39,000.
Analysts don't find it funny that the company has been silent about the $1,000 booking deposit it has collected so far.
This is a perfect time, two days before the disastrous Q1 2019 results were announced, with Tesla go-
For the underwriters, Tesla held a "Autonomy Day" on April 22, followed by a "broad investor call" on May 2 ".
Both activities are designed to dazzle analysts, investors and the public, who come up with such a grand and strange proposition that alchemy is seen as a cautious scientific effort: the company proposed to become a Class 5 autonomous taxi company.
With this in mind, Tesla intends to go far beyond its current valuation in the ipo markets of Lyft and Uber, at the 2015 conference call, adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley hinted to Tesla's CEO about the shared ride.
Once turned, from 2020, the company will quickly move towards a market value of $500 billion, while cars from existing customers will appreciate to $250,000 as they grow older.
Tesla will operate the Model 3 rental return, and the lessee will no longer allow to buy a car after the contract expires to compete with Tesla's owner, who will hand over the car to Tesla's "carpooling network ".
If that sounds strange, it's because it is.
Self-driving pioneers like mobile Ye's Amnon Shashua and Waymo's John krafitch have warned more than once that level 5 self-driving could take dozens more if the self-driving arrives
Level 5 autonomy means robot cars that do not require user input and user control;
Be able to drive yourself at any time, any terrain, any location, any weather, any traffic conditions.
Too much pseudo-scientific nonsense has been written on this topic, the current "next big event, so I ended the article with four refined but too common traffic scenarios for the reader, these scenes will see Tesla's "brain" from the effort of wearing a dunce hat.
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